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While Foreign policy experts try to understand why China is provoking multiple countries at once, here's a blast from the past:
WW2: Just before the start of World War 2, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union under Stalin signed a non-aggression pact.
(1/n)
While Foreign policy experts try to understand why China is provoking multiple countries at once, here's a blast from the past:
WW2: Just before the start of World War 2, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union under Stalin signed a non-aggression pact.
(1/n)
There was deep mistrust between Hitler and Stalin. However, Hitler didn't want a problem in the East while he was conquering areas to West of Germany. Stalin also knew of Hitler's hatred for communists and realised that a war was imminent. But, he wanted some time to prepare(2/n)
Hence the pact
Fast forward to April 1941. UK PM Winston Churchill sent a letter to Stalin warning him of Germany's plans to invade Soviet Union.
Stalin saw in this letter a conspiracy by capitalists, democratic nations against Communist Soviet Union.His hypothesis was like this:
Fast forward to April 1941. UK PM Winston Churchill sent a letter to Stalin warning him of Germany's plans to invade Soviet Union.
Stalin saw in this letter a conspiracy by capitalists, democratic nations against Communist Soviet Union.His hypothesis was like this:
1 US, UK and France wanted the Soviet Union to get alarmed by this letter and activate its military machinery
2 This, in turn, would alarm Germany and give Hitler a reason to attack Soviet Union.
Apart from this conspiracy theory, Stalin had more reasons
(4/n)
2 This, in turn, would alarm Germany and give Hitler a reason to attack Soviet Union.
Apart from this conspiracy theory, Stalin had more reasons
(4/n)
to believe that Germany won't attack the Soviet Union.
Stalin thought logically and realised that Germany cant fight a two-front war(i.e., against both UK and Soviet Union). So, unless Germany defeated or made peace with the UK, there was no threat to the Soviet Union. (5/n)
Stalin thought logically and realised that Germany cant fight a two-front war(i.e., against both UK and Soviet Union). So, unless Germany defeated or made peace with the UK, there was no threat to the Soviet Union. (5/n)
Over the following months, Stalin received many more reports from Russian intelligence warning him that Germany was preparing to invade the Soviet Union. However, he chose to ignore all of them believing his own intelligence reports to be a part of a conspiracy by the West. (6/n)
As we all know, However, Germany did invade the Soviet Union in June 1941 and the Russian red army, ill-prepared due to Stalin's reluctance to prepare for the war, suffered a terrible defeat.
Now, the question arises, where did Stalin go wrong? (7/n)
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Now, the question arises, where did Stalin go wrong? (7/n)
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Well, the mistake Stalin made was that 'he thought logically'. Being a dictator himself he admired the way Hitler rose to power. He believed that Hitler won't be stupid enough to trigger a two-front war for Germany by attacking the Soviet while he was still fighting with UK.(8/n)
Blinded by the successes of Nazi Germany, Stalin overestimated Hitler's intelligence. He couldn't imagine the possibility of Hitler not thinking logically. (9/n)
Again, fast forward to 2020. The rise of China has been as impressive as the expansion of Nazi Germany's empire.
China in 2020 has tried to invade India, bullied smaller nations along the South China Sea, virtually made HongKong a part of China, (10/n)
China in 2020 has tried to invade India, bullied smaller nations along the South China Sea, virtually made HongKong a part of China, (10/n)
, warned Taiwan by sending fighter jets and made enmity with Australia,
Canada and of course the United States.
All of us(experts, diplomats and common people alike) are trying to find some or the other logic in each of these moves made by China under Xi Jinping. (11/n)
Canada and of course the United States.
All of us(experts, diplomats and common people alike) are trying to find some or the other logic in each of these moves made by China under Xi Jinping. (11/n)
Why is China provoking so many countries at the same time, that too after spreading #coronavirus around the world?
Even China experts like @ananthkrishnan fail to find any logical explanation in China's moves(12/n) https://twitter.com/ananthkrishnan/status/1300782251760914432
Even China experts like @ananthkrishnan fail to find any logical explanation in China's moves(12/n) https://twitter.com/ananthkrishnan/status/1300782251760914432
Maybe the reason we are not able to find any logic in China's moves is that there is no logic at all.
Just like how Hitler made a mistake of starting a two-front war, maybe Xi Jinping(popularly known as #Xitler btw) is doing the same. (13/n)
Just like how Hitler made a mistake of starting a two-front war, maybe Xi Jinping(popularly known as #Xitler btw) is doing the same. (13/n)
Instead of trying to find some explanation, some information regarding China's intentions, we must start preparing for the worst.
A common teaching is to not underestimate your enemy, but WW2 teaches us to not overestimate our enemy either.
(14/n)
A common teaching is to not underestimate your enemy, but WW2 teaches us to not overestimate our enemy either.
(14/n)
However, even stupid actions of big powers can be dangerous.
Bcoz of Stalin's reluctance to prepare for a war with Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union became the country to lose the maximum lives(26.6 million) in the Second World War. (15/n)
Bcoz of Stalin's reluctance to prepare for a war with Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union became the country to lose the maximum lives(26.6 million) in the Second World War. (15/n)
The lesson is to stop looking for reasons or explanations and start preparing for the worst. Assume that China will act stupid. Xi Jinping bears an uncanny resemblance to Adolf Hitler. (16/n)
The idea for this thread came from this amazing documentry on the duel between Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler. A must watch!
