This IMHE model suggests another 9,000 deaths in NY, another 15,000 deaths in FL, another 3,000 deaths in AZ, and a whopping 23,000 more deaths in TX. It assumes we will hit 3,000 deaths per day again in December. This seems extraordinarily unlikely. https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1301811437099155457

1. Death rates have been dropping radically, and will drop even more radically in coming weeks as therapeutics come on line.
2. The projected winter increase assumed a seasonality in terms of infections -- but throughout the south, infections have already exploded and receded.

3. There is no evidence of a "second wave" anywhere in areas that have already been hard hit; there seems to be a serious first wave, and then the virus peters out.

4. If seasonality were to be a factor, we would expect it mostly in cold areas during winter -- i.e. the Northeast and Midwest. The Northeast in particular has already been savaged by covid, and there has been no repeat uptick.

Worth noting: this model suggests that California, which has experienced around 13,000 deaths thus far, will experience an incredible 37,000 more deaths by January 1. The evidence of that incredible increase is skimpy, to say the least.