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Given our experiences in 2016, it’s fair to ask if we should take national polls all that seriously. I think of it this way: national polls can help get us in the right neighborhood, but not necessarily to the correct address. 1/ https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/two-months-go-steady-presidential-race">https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...
The bigger the margin for Biden, the less important that we get the exact address. For example, a 7-8 point margin may not be enough to put GA or TX into Biden& #39;s column. But, it& #39;s enough to get him the states he needs to hit 270. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/two-months-go-steady-presidential-race">https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...
The closer the margin is to four points (like we saw back in March), the less helpful the national polls become. And, the more we should just assume a close contest for the Electoral College. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/two-months-go-steady-presidential-race">https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...
Which is why the most important thing to watch from now until November is not “can Trump catch up with Biden?” But, can Trump narrow Biden’s lead to 3-4 pts. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/two-months-go-steady-presidential-race">https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...
