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Robert Kaplan & I write in @foreignaffairs that Americans should not see the necessary competition w/ China as primarily about ideology. Doing so will misconstrue the nature of the competition – w/ potentially catastrophic results. Summary thread follows. 1/
Why? Beijing’s motivations in pursuing its goal of regional hegemony are largely not ideological. A) China very likely seeks to form a regional trade area/bloc favorable to its economy. B) Its drive for hegemony also has strategic purpose. China has long felt fenced in. Now...2/
wants to compel neighboring states to take security cues from Beijing. C) & after “century of humiliation,” China is eager to stand tall, asserting its power in Asia and beyond. None of these imperatives is strictly ideological. 3/
Building an anti-hegemonial coalition (a la https://www.state.gov/deputy-secretary-biegun-remarks-at-the-u-s-india-strategic-partnership-forum/) will be difficult if U.S. insists on seeing competition w China as primarily ideological. Even worse, it could lead to far more negative outcomes than necessary. 4/
By definition, an ideological struggle makes the rivalry an existential cage match, heightening its intensity and risks even further. can also block more stable relationship if a CCP–led China is willing to respect US/allied interests. 5/
& construing the competition as principally ideological tends to turn every disturbance in another country into a test of which political system is superior, magnifies the importance of fundamentally peripheral events. This thinking https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/kennedy.asp ⇢ Vietnam War 6/
& will be hard or impossible, to work with less liberal or nondemocratic states. But many/most key Asian states either not democs (VN) or not model Freedom House democracies (India, Phils, Malaysia, etc etc). No use to have Denmark/Norway but not many of these. 7/
We're not proposing one-dimensional realpolitik. The United States must stand for freedom, republican government, and human dignity. & we must recognize Beijing itself thinks in at least substantially ideological terms. 8/
But while Americans may wish for PRC to become freer, it's not their responsibility, necessary, nor would it solve all problems. Scale of China’s power would cause profound concern for U.S. policymakers even if China were a democracy. So US must be clear-eyed & selective. END/
