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Due to the poisoning of A. Navalny, the German support for NS2 has returned to the spotlight. There have been calls on the German government to stop the investment. Below I share my few thoughts on the matter [THREAD]
1/14 https://twitter.com/AndersFoghR/status/1301223286949507076">https://twitter.com/AndersFog...
1/14 https://twitter.com/AndersFoghR/status/1301223286949507076">https://twitter.com/AndersFog...
1) It is unlikely that the investment, which is backed by Berlin despite the aggression on Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, etc., will lose the support after the attempted murder of Navalny.
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Merkel& #39;s recent firm statements should be understood, not only as a moral admonishment of what happened, but also as a dodge - the "strong reaction" will in no way affect NS2.
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After all, recently, when Navalny was already in a German hospital, Merkel expressed her support for NS2.
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2) It& #39;s a separate issue whether the German govt. can "block" NS2 now as it doesn& #39;t directly control any of the engaged companies, permits have been issued and only ~150 km of the pipe needs to be lain, etc. So, the answer to this question is no. Still, there is one "but".
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It is worth asking another question (we are entering the zone of political fiction - see point 1) - could the German government contribute (at one of the project& #39;s phases) to the failure of NS2 by withdrawing its political support? In my opinion - yes.
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In such a case the possible fiasco of the project, would not be caused by Germany& #39;s change of heart only. It could mean Berlin was sending a message that it would not engage in, e.g. defending European companies against US sanctions...
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...which would make it additionally difficult/impossible to finish NS2 (but it& #39;s just political fiction, also because of many other factors that could not be fit into this thread).
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3) Does this mean it makes sense to put pressure on Berlin over NS2? Definitely. Even if NS2 is not stopped (that& #39;s the ultimate goal, but it& #39;s Washington& #39;s call, not Berlin& #39;s), the pressure could force Germany...
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...to take into greater consideration the interests of CEE/Ukraine (e.g. vis-à-vis Russia) as a redress for NS2.
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4) Finally, an important issue regarding relations with Russia: at every stage of the investment Berlin failed to openly suggest that NS2 could lose support because of the Kremlin& #39;s aggressive policy.
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On the contrary: the focus was on undermining the arguments of NS2 opponents and ensuring this was "just business" and that the investment would be completed.
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In my opinion, if there is anything in this world that could impact the Kremlin, that would be e.g. a clear suggestion that Russians could not continue their aggressive policies and simultaneously hope for "business as usual".
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Would that work? Perhaps, but the main problem is, Germany has ever tried this.
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*never
ofc
ofc
