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On 17 August Prof Karim was on ENCA talking about the potential impact of moving to level 2 lockdown. He set the scene for second wave fears:
"We expect that there may be a slight increase in cases. Around the 28 of August."
Was he right?
Link: https://www.enca.com/news/covid-19-rise-cases-expected-10-days-karim">https://www.enca.com/news/covi...
"We expect that there may be a slight increase in cases. Around the 28 of August."
Was he right?
Link: https://www.enca.com/news/covid-19-rise-cases-expected-10-days-karim">https://www.enca.com/news/covi...
It& #39;s now been a full week since he was expecting to see more cases. Did we see more? No, we saw a lot fewer cases.
Week ending 3 Sep: 14,729 cases
Week ending 27 Aug: 18,346 cases
Week ending 20 Aug: 27,075 cases
Week ending 3 Sep: 14,729 cases
Week ending 27 Aug: 18,346 cases
Week ending 20 Aug: 27,075 cases
"Sure," you say, "but we& #39;ve done much less testing!"
Yes, you& #39;re right, so what we need to look at is case positivity (what % of tests done are positive):
Week ending 3 Sep: 11.4%
Week ending 27 Aug: 13.3%
Week ending 20 Aug: 16.4%
This latest week is better despite level 2
Yes, you& #39;re right, so what we need to look at is case positivity (what % of tests done are positive):
Week ending 3 Sep: 11.4%
Week ending 27 Aug: 13.3%
Week ending 20 Aug: 16.4%
This latest week is better despite level 2
Deaths effects would lag by a further couple of weeks, but for interest the reported deaths in the same weeks:
Week ending 3 Sep: 935
Week ending 27 Aug: 1010
Week ending 20 Aug: 1348
Week ending 3 Sep: 935
Week ending 27 Aug: 1010
Week ending 20 Aug: 1348
This will confound the scientists. And the reason for this is that they are living in a world where they genuinely believe that lockdowns in general, and lockdown levels in particular make an actual difference to this virus.
A much simpler hypothesis which matches the data is that lockdowns in general, and lockdown levels in particular make NO difference to Covid spread and simply don& #39;t work.
This virus is going to virus.
This virus is going to virus.
Don& #39;t hold your breath to hear this put forward as a possibility. Too many people who advocated for our lockdowns and were instrumental in them do not have the maturity or integrity to actually concede "we may have made a mistake".
