On 17 August Prof Karim was on ENCA talking about the potential impact of moving to level 2 lockdown. He set the scene for second wave fears:

"We expect that there may be a slight increase in cases. Around the 28 of August."

Was he right?

Link: https://www.enca.com/news/covid-19-rise-cases-expected-10-days-karim

It's now been a full week since he was expecting to see more cases. Did we see more? No, we saw a lot fewer cases.

Week ending 3 Sep: 14,729 cases
Week ending 27 Aug: 18,346 cases
Week ending 20 Aug: 27,075 cases

"Sure," you say, "but we've done much less testing!"

Yes, you're right, so what we need to look at is case positivity (what % of tests done are positive):

Week ending 3 Sep: 11.4%
Week ending 27 Aug: 13.3%
Week ending 20 Aug: 16.4%

This latest week is better despite level 2

Deaths effects would lag by a further couple of weeks, but for interest the reported deaths in the same weeks:

Week ending 3 Sep: 935
Week ending 27 Aug: 1010
Week ending 20 Aug: 1348

This will confound the scientists. And the reason for this is that they are living in a world where they genuinely believe that lockdowns in general, and lockdown levels in particular make an actual difference to this virus.

A much simpler hypothesis which matches the data is that lockdowns in general, and lockdown levels in particular make NO difference to Covid spread and simply don't work.

This virus is going to virus.

Don't hold your breath to hear this put forward as a possibility. Too many people who advocated for our lockdowns and were instrumental in them do not have the maturity or integrity to actually concede "we may have made a mistake".

Rather you will hear nonsense that all their other recommendations are the reason. Are more people wearing masks than two or three weeks back? Doubtful. So the change is not masks. Likewise there's not more distancing.

It's not us driving the change. We are not gods.