9 #M4A co-sponsors vacating safe D seats.

7/9 replacements favor #MedicareForAll:

Gabbard → Kahele
Lacy Clay → Bush
Serrano → Torres
Engel → Bowman
Lowey → Jones
Luján → L. Fernandez
Udall → Luján

2/9 favor public option:

Visclosky → Mrvan
Kennedy III → Auchincloss

3 other incumbents who co-sponsor #MedicareForAll are under credible threat in the general. Re-election chances based on range of 4 models:

Susan Wild #PA07
70.1–98.5%

Matt Cartwright #PA08
58.3–90.8%

Jared Golden #ME02
59.8–78%

Gut feeling: all relatively safe.

2 lost #MedicareForAll co-sponsors ( #IN01 + #MA04) have already been made up in safe D districts.

#IL03 Marie Newman defeated incumbent Dan Lipinski, who voted against ACA.

#CA53 Both candidates (Georgette Gómez and Sara Jacobs) support #M4A, while Susan Davis never signed.

4 likely #MedicareForAll co-sponsors have good odds to unseat Republican incumbents. Election chances based on range of 4 models:

Kara Eastman #NE02
36.2–66.9%

Dana Balter #NY24
20.7–49.9%

Jon Hoadley #MI06
14.8–51%

Mike Siegel #TX10
7.8–55.7%

4 more likely #MedicareForAll co-sponsors have outside odds vs. Republican opponents. Election chances based on range of 4 models:

Donna Imam #TX31
1.7–57.5%

Julie Oliver #TX25
3.5–12%

Qasim Rashid #VA01
2.4–18.7

Ammar Campa-Najjar #CA50
2.7–22.1

Candace Valenzuela has a good chance to defeat GOP incumbent in #TX24. She's running on public option, but I suspect she may sign #MedicareForAll.

Beth Doglio is the #M4A candidate in all-Democrat race for #WA10. Opponent's poll shows her 20 points back, but it's worth watching.

Summary: #MedicareForAll is losing 2 co-sponsors in the House but gaining 2 in their place.

Good shot to add 4 more in the general. Outside shot at 8-10.

Also exciting to be replacing 3 meh #M4A backers with stronger advocates: Cori Bush, Mondaire Jones, and Jamaal Bowman.

In the Senate, progressives have one realistic chance to make #MedicareForAll gains: Jessica Scarane ( @JessforDelaware) over Chris Coons.

Hers is the most urgent race at the federal level, with voting underway and finishing 9/15.

Donate or volunteer! https://www.jessfordelaware.com/