1) Although #COVID19 outbreaks in Quebec City, Sherbrooke and other regions have made the news in the last few days, fresh evidence is emerging of a potential resurgence in Montreal. In this thread, I will assess whether this trend constitutes an uptick or a real resurgence.

2) The metropolis posted 41 #COVID19 cases Thursday, the third consecutive daily increase, according to the orange line in the chart below. Still, those numbers are far below the 600-daily range in cases during the peak of the first wave of the #pandemic at the beginning of May.

3) On Wednesday, however, public health authorities released their weekly portrait of community transmission of the #coronavirus in the city. In the chart below, you will glimpse a spike in community cases in the Plateau Mont-Royal, Saint-Léonard and downtown Ville-Marie.

4) The rise in community transmission in Saint-Léonard is somewhat surprising as the borough has not been identified previously as a #COVID19 hotspot. See the chart below. The director of a Saint-Léonard trade school confirmed Tuesday a student tested positive for the virus.

5) By comparison, downtown has remained problematic since Quebec allowed bars to reopen on June 25, a decision blamed for multiple #COVID19 outbreaks. See the chart below. Three weeks ago, Apple closed its flagship store on Ste-Catherine St. What else is going on downtown?

6) At the neighborhood level, the latest breakdown shows yet another potential hotspot: the southwest including Côte St-Paul, St-Henri and Pointe-St-Charles, with nine new #COVID19 cases. See the chart below. But the #coronavirus is circulating in every corner of the metropolis.

7) Since the academic year started less than two weeks ago, 57 schools in Quebec have been identified where at least one teacher or student has tested positive for the #coronavirus, according to the website @CovidEcoles, a volunteer effort by Nun’s Island parent @olivierdrouin.

8) On the island of Montreal, 17 schools have been identified to date, as the @CovidEcoles map below shows. To my knowledge, no Montreal school has declared a full-blown outbreak, but given the proliferation of isolated cases, it may be only a matter of time before that happens.

9) Thus, the rise in cases across the city, coupled with confirmed infections in crowded schools, suggest Montreal may very well be at the start of another resurgence. Certainly, the city is experiencing a non- #COVID resurgence in ER overcrowding. See the chart below.

10) Although Quebec didn't declare any new #COVID19 fatalities Thursday, Montreal’s death toll grew by three retroactive ones to 3,475, according to the light blue line in the chart below. By comparison, the Italian region of Lazio (where Rome is located) has declared 878 deaths.

11) In total, Quebec recorded its biggest single-day increase since June 8: 187 cases. This prompted François Legault to warn he might close bars or restrict public gatherings in some regions. But the Premier stopped short of actually doing so. End of thread. Please stay safe.