JMU had 143 quarantine beds. UNC had 73.

UVA, after wrestling late into the night with the decision to reopen, is betting 1,500 beds that it can reopen this fall.

https://www.cvilletomorrow.org/articles/uva-scrambles-to-create-1500-quarantine-beds-as-insufficient-quarantine-space-forces-other-universities-to-close/">https://www.cvilletomorrow.org/articles/... https://twitter.com/ruthservensmith/status/1301667355177750528">https://twitter.com/ruthserve...

If anyone has documents detailing a model or guesstimate that led to this decision, send them to me.

It took some poking to get UVA to give me this current bed tally, which is subject to change.

26 students are currently in quarantine.

Essentially, it also seems like a bet to carry on no matter what.

Per @TylerHammelVA’s story today, only about 3k students will on Grounds. So @uva just needs no more than 50% of them to be sick at one time. Give or take. #tracking-source=home-top-story">https://dailyprogress.com/news/uva/uva-students-begin-to-move-in-amid-controversy-over-in-person-classes/article_73d773cc-2ac9-556f-bccb-ff51686eeff6.html #tracking-source=home-top-story">https://dailyprogress.com/news/uva/...

If there’s a different unacceptable level of risk or remote threshold, we’ve yet to hear it. https://www.cvilletomorrow.org/articles/uva-scrambles-to-create-1500-quarantine-beds-as-insufficient-quarantine-space-forces-other-universities-to-close/">https://www.cvilletomorrow.org/articles/...

Two other thoughts: this seems kind of maneageable for positives on Grounds. But there’s an unknown number of students living off-Grounds in Cville; unlike some private schools, UVa can’t lock them down.

And, as @mizzou and others show, testing troubles can mask actual spread.

For anyone curious about housing occupancy rates, here’s a 2013 study. https://officearchitect.virginia.edu/pdfs/UVAPhase_I_Documentation-BriefingMemo.pdf">https://officearchitect.virginia.edu/pdfs/UVAP...

Also (sorry to keep tweeting) a fair amount of uncertainty in those numbers and how any of this actually works.

Wish I could have passed this off to a beat reporter at the Progress, but I hope everyone keeps supporting the student and local journalists in town.