Read on Twitter
So many people have sent this to to me today, and I'm going to go against the grain on this one.
I acknowledge that the impression that the quotes selected create is not a good one.
But I don't think they present a fair picture of the researchers involved. https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/status/1301588828860235777
I acknowledge that the impression that the quotes selected create is not a good one.
But I don't think they present a fair picture of the researchers involved. https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/status/1301588828860235777
I had never met @NigelGoldenfeld prior to the pandemic, but we've interacted a number of times since. He's been the opposite of every arrogant physicist stereotype throughout.
He's worked extremely hard to listen to and learn from epidemiologists, and to take on a thankless job.
He's worked extremely hard to listen to and learn from epidemiologists, and to take on a thankless job.
With respect to what is happening at UIUC, I think it's too early to say the effort will fail—though of course it could fail. We knew that all along, or at least that's what I've been telling reporters for weeks.
To paraphrase: "I don't know whether UIUC will be successful or not. A lot will depend on questions we just don't know the answer to yet, esp. around the degree that a pandemic influences student behavior and the degree to which student behavior influences transmissibility."
"Of course students are going party. And they'll also likely be asymptomatic more often than older people. We know that we're facing an effective reproductive number higher than the nationwide average. But we don't know how high it is."
"Unlike other universities, UIUC invested a ton of resources into making a strong, good-faith effort to be able to have an in-person semester at a large state flagship school. Frequent testing—twice weekly!—is a centerpiece of that effort."
"To pull this off they had to develop new technology in-house, tech that can be shared nationwide. The handled huge logistical challenges. They found ways to overcome unfortunate regulatory hurdles. All of this is commendable."
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I have not gone through the details of their particular model. But it was not a crazy pipe dream to think that twice-weekly testing with other adaptive controls could allow an in-person semester.
I have not gone through the details of their particular model. But it was not a crazy pipe dream to think that twice-weekly testing with other adaptive controls could allow an in-person semester.
Finally, the current status, while not encouraging, is not that unexpected. UIUC is doing on the order of 2% of *all tests in the US*. Given the size of the school and the number coming onto campus, hundreds of infections would have been there on day 1. We're seeing that now.
What matters now is the trajectory. I really hope that they call pull this off.
But even if they can't, throwing Nigel and Sergey under the bus for is one of more disappointing things I've seen in a week of very disappointing twitter.
But even if they can't, throwing Nigel and Sergey under the bus for is one of more disappointing things I've seen in a week of very disappointing twitter.
