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So many people have sent this to to me today, and I& #39;m going to go against the grain on this one.
I acknowledge that the impression that the quotes selected create is not a good one.
But I don& #39;t think they present a fair picture of the researchers involved. https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/status/1301588828860235777">https://twitter.com/yellingat...
I acknowledge that the impression that the quotes selected create is not a good one.
But I don& #39;t think they present a fair picture of the researchers involved. https://twitter.com/yellingatwind/status/1301588828860235777">https://twitter.com/yellingat...
I had never met @NigelGoldenfeld prior to the pandemic, but we& #39;ve interacted a number of times since. He& #39;s been the opposite of every arrogant physicist stereotype throughout.
He& #39;s worked extremely hard to listen to and learn from epidemiologists, and to take on a thankless job.
He& #39;s worked extremely hard to listen to and learn from epidemiologists, and to take on a thankless job.
With respect to what is happening at UIUC, I think it& #39;s too early to say the effort will fail—though of course it could fail. We knew that all along, or at least that& #39;s what I& #39;ve been telling reporters for weeks.
To paraphrase: "I don& #39;t know whether UIUC will be successful or not. A lot will depend on questions we just don& #39;t know the answer to yet, esp. around the degree that a pandemic influences student behavior and the degree to which student behavior influences transmissibility."
"Of course students are going party. And they& #39;ll also likely be asymptomatic more often than older people. We know that we& #39;re facing an effective reproductive number higher than the nationwide average. But we don& #39;t know how high it is."
"Unlike other universities, UIUC invested a ton of resources into making a strong, good-faith effort to be able to have an in-person semester at a large state flagship school. Frequent testing—twice weekly!—is a centerpiece of that effort."
"To pull this off they had to develop new technology in-house, tech that can be shared nationwide. The handled huge logistical challenges. They found ways to overcome unfortunate regulatory hurdles. All of this is commendable."
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I have not gone through the details of their particular model. But it was not a crazy pipe dream to think that twice-weekly testing with other adaptive controls could allow an in-person semester.
I have not gone through the details of their particular model. But it was not a crazy pipe dream to think that twice-weekly testing with other adaptive controls could allow an in-person semester.
Finally, the current status, while not encouraging, is not that unexpected. UIUC is doing on the order of 2% of *all tests in the US*. Given the size of the school and the number coming onto campus, hundreds of infections would have been there on day 1. We& #39;re seeing that now.
