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#Covid_19 has handed governments a perfect cause for reshoring manufacturing back from #China. However, to fight #ClimateChange, we need to protect global supply chains in low carbon tech, @LlewelynHughes and I argue in @nature. Here is why: http://shorturl.at/dmBIN . And a thread.
To start with, it is hard to do reshoring. Chinese manufacturers rely on a local ecosystem of suppliers and product designers, and there is lots of process innovation that allowed them to get where they are. Replicating such ecosystems takes time and costs money.
Also, protectionism barely work. In 2018, the US imposed a 30% tariff on PV imports. The result: a loss of jobs (minus 62000 by @SEIA estimates) and lower capacity deployment in the US. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/120319-us-solar-panel-tariffs-could-cause-105-gw-of-lost-solar-capacity-62000-fewer-jobs-seia
As an aside, economic isolationism also isn't smart. @henryfarrell and @ANewman_forward had some intriguing thoughts on #decoupling in Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-06-03/folly-decoupling-china
Still, the Trump administration government is determined to carve China out of global supply chains, e.g. by creating an “Economic Prosperity Network” of trusted partners, including Australia, Japan or South Korea. @KFJ_FP has you covered on this. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/14/china-us-pandemic-economy-tensions-trump-coronavirus-covid-new-cold-war-economics-the-great-decoupling/
What’s important to remember is that supply chains help specialization. This brings down costs. For example, solar-module prices fell by 90% in the past decade, allowing PV installations to rise from 40 GW in 2010 to 627 GW in 2019. @irena has the data: https://www.irena.org/newsroom/articles/2020/Jun/How-Falling-Costs-Make-Renewables-a-Cost-effective-Investment
#China has indeed come to dominate the #solar PV market in the past decade. But Chinese firms rely on German companies to produce the advanced machinery used to manufacture silicon wafers. @jonasnahm and @JohnHelveston had a good piece on this in Science: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6467/794/tab-article-info
Supply chains aren't perfect. The mining of raw materials needed for PVs or EVs raises human-rights issues. Soil is left polluted by toxic waste. Much effort is needed to make the low-carbon transition more just (see, e.g. research by @SussexNRGGroup https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378019305886)
But a key lesson from #COVID19 is that is that even massive economic shocks do not drive down #emissions anywhere near enough. Less globalisation cannot be the answer. Throwing sand into global supply chains will add to costs and slow the deployment of low carbon technologies.
So what’s to be done? 1) keep international trade networks in low-carbon technologies intact, to ensure that these keep getting better and cheaper as quickly as possible. 2) Use green industrial strategies and
focus on developing innovations and bringing them to market; and
focus on developing innovations and bringing them to market; and
3) stay away from replacing established supply chains for mature technologies. Abandoning them means losing time that we don’t have and puts the climate at risk. Full article available at https://media.nature.com/original/magazine-assets/d41586-020-02499-8/d41586-020-02499-8.pdf. END
