1. I was head of research and analysis at @trendwatching for seven years

advised brands from Google to Marriott, and many in between, on consumer trends

spoke at conferences everywhere

here is the simple, powerful framework my team used to spot emerging trends

*thread *

2. New trends in human behaviour and mindset are made of two building blocks

(i) change and (ii) fundamental human needs

the key?

new trends emerge when *change unlocks new ways to serve fundamental human needs* such as convenience, value, security, or status

let's go deeper

3. When we seek to understand the world around us, the central challenge we face is change

we live in a world of seemingly fast and disorienting change: technological, social, economic and more

it can throw us off balance

4. But there is a simple truth that can allow us to get a handle on all this change

and to discern meaningful new directions of travel – new trends – within it

5. Amid all that change, we're still the same old humans with the same old human nature

humans are motivated by a set of needs that at their most fundamental are stable over time

those unchanging needs can anchor our attempts to make sense of a changing world

6. The mistake many make when they try to spot trends is to fixate on highly visible change. Usually new tech and innovation

driverless cars! AI! facial recognition!

but simply saying 'there will be AI in future' tells us nothing much about how life will be in the years ahead

7. Instead, we need to see new tech and other change *through the lens of fundamental human needs*

when we do that, we start to see how these changes will fuel new trends in human behaviour and mindset

check out some examples from the distant past...

8. Rewind to the early 2000s and see emerging social media through the lens of the eternal human quest for status

that would have empowered you to glimpse the rise of the #soblessed #livingmybestlife influencer, and much that came along with it

9. See the rise of smart wearables through the lens of the core human need for self-improvement, and you'd have had an early glimpse of what used to be called the 'quantified self movement'...

and is now called 'everyday life'

10. See facial recognition through the lens of personalisation, and you'd have foreseen the rise of physical spaces that shift around the preferences of their inhabitants

at TW we called them Sentient Spaces

retail loves this trend

tbf Minority Report def beat us to that one

11. Looking at the world this way becomes a habit.

that habit turns you into trend watcher. Anyone can do it!

we all see a ton of new stuff – app, services, platforms, whatever – every day

it can feel overwhelming. But all that stuff is data for the trend watcher

12. When you see something new, ask yourself:

what change is making this innovation possible?

what basic need is this innovation trying to serve?

remember, you're looking in particular for *innovations that leverage recent change to serve a core need in a new way*

13. When you see recent change – tech or otherwise – unlocking a new way to serve an age-old, fundamental human need, then you know you have the makings of an emerging trend

can't stress this enough:

real, meaningful, lasting new trends are founded in basic human needs

14. Cultivate this way of seeing the world – through the lens of change and human needs – and it will become your secret weapon

instead of feeling overwhelmed by all the innovation you see, you'll feel empowered.

because you'll be drawing powerful new trends out of the chaos

15. You'll become your own trend watcher!

then you'll be able to put your trends to work to create new products, services, and campaigns that change the world

remember: trends are nothing if you don't use them

16. If trends are your thing, then my newsletter would be right up your street

it goes to 12,000+ subs, and we'd love to have you

the simple trend framework I just told you about?

it inspired the name... https://newworldsamehumans.substack.com/