Initial claims have been largely unchanged at around 800,000 for the past four weeks. This represents a steady stream of job loss, and remains a worrying sign: do not judge by expectations or simply relative to the past, this is an absolute high level...

... However, continuing claims continue to move down. In terms of net labor market change, you should put more weight on continuing claims at this point. What initial claims suggest is there is not just job creation going on, but a very high level of ongoing job destruction

What's happening is PPP has run out or is running out for many small businesses. With demand still so weak, many are looking at how long it's been, how bad things still are, and throwing in the towel.

We have a temporary situation of weak demand in some sectors. The more we allow this to translate to business failure, the slower the recovery will be. It's insanity that we haven't done more to follow up on PPP, and that we aren't seeing more panic quite frankly.

Every day on here someone else tweets about a favorite small business in their town that they can't believe closed. What you are seeing is that closing has nothing to do with whether the business was doing well and whether they had a good future. Healthy businesses are dying.