Value & points projections GW1-5

{THREAD}

#FPL #FPLCommunity

Finally algo projections has arrived! We'll take a look at which players provide the best value based on this.

Projections were gathered from two different FPL sites. I tweaked the numbers a tiny bit to my own preference for instance I boosted Vinagre's numbers to match Saiss.

The list is not a complete list of all players but rather a few selected ones that on the surface represents good value for their club and has an interesting price point.
In other words, players I was seriously considering for my own team.

Projected points GW1-5

1. Son 32.1
2. Salah 30.9
3. Aubameyang 27.6
4. Werner 27.2
5. Vardy 27.1
6. Mane 26.9
7. Kane 25.2
8. Pulisic 25.2
9. Jimenez 24.5
10. Fernandes 24.4
11. Ings 24.2
12. Robertson 24
13. Sterling 23.7
14. Rashford 23.7
15. De Bruyne 23.5

16. TAA 21.9
17. Doherty 21.4
18. Greenwood 21.3
19. Foden 20
20. Davies 18.6
21. Wood 18.2
22. Antonio 18.2
23. Traore 17.9
24. Digne 17.8
25. Egan 17.7
26. Mitrovic 17.6
27. Ziyech 17.6
28. van Dijk 17.4
29. Azpilicueta 17.4
30: Vinagre: 17.3
31. ASM 15.5
32. Soucek 14.8

The following list shows how these players can be rated in terms of "true value" based on this.

Value GW 1-5

1. Vinagre
2. Davies
3. Egan
4. Saint-Maximin
5. Soucek
6. Mitrovic
7. Doherty
8. Foden
9. Wood
10. Antonio
11. Traore
12. Digne
13. Azpilicueta
14. Robertson
15. VVD

16. Greenwood
17. Son
18. TAA
19. Pulisic
20. Jimenez
21. Ings
22. Ziyech
23. Werner
24. Rashford
25. Vardy
26. Fernandes
27. Kane
28. Sterling
29. De Bruyne
30. Salah
31. Aubameyang
32. Mane

Best points in each position: Son, Werner, TAA
Best value in each position: Vinagre, Saint-Maximin, Mitrovic

Pricy players that offer good value in each position:
Doherty, Son, Jim/Ings/Werner

I will now give 2 examples of drafts to illustrate what a template team looks like and which changes we would try and make to get the most out of these projections.

Example 1: Template

This example is based on popular picks and structure. It does not consider the value that has been previously discussed. It's mostly based on high ownership.

This team is projected to score 247 points in 5 weeks excluding captaincy effect.

This team maybe illustrates the wisdom of the masses. Some non template twitter picks such as Egan and Traoré scores very well in terms of value.

But it's clear that algo's like Doherty a lot so he has to come into the next team.

Example 2: Improved team

This team is projected to outscore the previous team by 13 points. The question is if we feel like we can afford to drop Auba and trust semi-premiums with captaincy.

This team has 0.5 ITB so could upgrade Mitchell to another DEF to rotate with Vinagre.

This last draft is where I currently stand with my own team. By trying to find an optimized team based on projections I've coincidentally arrived at a draft that I like more than any others that I've made.

Thanks for reading and hope you found this interesting. RT/appreciated!