A reporter at tonight's COVID-19 task force presser in Mexico City questioned its leader about the herd immunity approach. He started off with a fake news/infodemia detour, which has become a pattern when he's asked a rare tough question. But then came a revealing response...
Part of the question was about possible scenarios for ending the pandemic. Three -and only 3- were presented in response.
1. Population develops herd immunity
2. Effective vaccine becomes available
3. SARS-CoV-2 becomes another endemic respiratory disease "like the seasonal flu."
Which basically boils down to either we achieve herd immunity through enough of us surviving infection or until a vaccine or it stays with us forever...and those are the only options on the menu. Herd immunity plus hospital expansion has been the observable strategy in practice.
Video of the question and answer, for posterity. The "infodemia" detour lasts 3mins. Answer to the reporter's question comes after that.
But for some reason, this scale of swift and hard push back against the herd immunity approach from doctors and public health experts simply isn't very visible in Mexico. Same deal with Mexico's testing rates, which are among the lowest in the world per capita.
Let's do the math. Per statements made tonight 65-75% of Mexico's population would have to survive COVID-19 to develop a theoretical immunity for an undetermined amount of time. 65% of Mexico's population comes to >83million people infected. But not all of those infected survive.
Some of those who DO survive can develop long lasting health problems, including scarring of the lungs, kidney damage, circulatory problems. This is another one of those topics you can read about in English extensively, but that isn't that visible within Mexico's media discourse.
When questioned about Mexico's high death toll, the task force has pointed to widespread, preexisting health problems among the population like diabetes, hypertension and obesity. Given those known conditions, why bet on herd immunity instead of a serious containment strategy?
To be clear, this isn't an "open the schools, allow large gatherings & act normal" strategy. It's a "sparse testing, little contact tracing, isolate with your family if sick, ignore asymptomatic spread, wishy-washy masking, buy ventilators and hope for the best" kind of approach.
Herd immunity is a term that really only applies to vaccines. What is effective in the meantime is widespread testing, contact tracing, supervised isolation of the sick away from large households, social distancing and masking. It's a question of public buy-in and political will.
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