https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👋" title="Waving hand" aria-label="Emoji: Waving hand"> You. Yes you, that feels confident that Biden is on track to win. Maybe you keep seeing polls where he is way ahead or that 538’s forecast says he has a 70% chance to win. Come along with me, I’d like to show you something (thread).

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida are the 3 swing states most likely to decide the election this year. Let’s take a look at how each of those in 2016 compared to today and see if anything looks familiar.

Wisconsin:

2016:
Polls on election night: Clinton +5.9%
Actual results: Trump +0.8%

Polls were off by 6.7%

Current 2020 polls:
Biden +7%

Florida:

2016:
Polls on election night: Clinton +1.3%
Actual results: Trump +1.2%
Polls were off by 2.5%

2018 Governor race:u2028Polls Forecast: D+4.3u2028Actual: R+0.4%u2028Polls were off by 4.7%

Current 2020 polls:
Biden +4.1%

Pennsylvania:

2016:
Polls on election night: Clinton 3.9%
Actual results: Trump 0.7%

Polls were off by 4.6%

Current 2020 polls:u2028Biden +4.3

Combine that with an election that will be unlike any in recent history. Occurring in the midst of a pandemic, altering voter behaviors in ways we don’t have much precedent for and polls may have trouble capturing. Small changes in turnout, rejected ballots, or law may swing this

Long way of saying: Do https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏" title="Applaus-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Applaus-Zeichen"> not https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏" title="Applaus-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Applaus-Zeichen"> get https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏" title="Applaus-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Applaus-Zeichen"> complacent https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏" title="Applaus-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Applaus-Zeichen">

This fight is far from over. Do not wake up on Nov 4th wishing that you had done more. Now is the time to do the work.

Donate. Text or phone bank. Write letters. Connect with 5 friends and make sure they have a plan to vote. Write letters for http://VoteFwd.org"> http://VoteFwd.org  while watching TV. Sign up for http://swingleft.org"> http://swingleft.org . Trade this for 10 minutes of doom scrolling.

Keep going.