Hey Hey Happy Wednesday everyone. We've been working hard at @angusreidorg and can show you our latest federal vote intention numbers. Follow along as I walk you through them.
This was a survey of more than 5000 Cdns coast to coast so we can look at lots of different data cuts, (& we will) but here's the main story: 3 weeks from a Throne Speech & possible election, @liberal_party & @CPC_HQ are tied in voter intention among decided voters: #cdnpoli
This represents a small bump of 4 points for the @CPC_HQ since May, and a corresponding little slide for @liberal_party in the same period of 2 points. Upshot: the 6 point lead the Liberals had opened up is gone for now: #cdnpoli
So now let's look at some advantages/strengths for the @JustinTrudeau's government in this situation... the first has to do the issues preoccupying Canadians the most these days: #cdnpoli
The incumbents have been seen - and continue to be seen to be doing well on COVID-19 response since the pandemic began: #cdnpoli
Then there is the @liberal_party dominance in places you have to win if you're going to win a general election. Ontario and QC, for example: #cdnpoli
....and the cities. The Liberals continue to dominate in and around Montreal, the GTA, and Metro Vancouver: #cdnpoli
Further, while I wouldn't exactly call it a "strength", @JustinTrudeau's own personal approval has stabilized after three months of declines mostly related to yet another mess-of-his-own-making, the WE Charity Affair: #cdnpoli
So those are some of the things the Liberals have going for them. Now let's talk about the @CPC_HQ and the important data we've gleaned about the opposition.
This was the first reading of public opinion since @CPC_HQ elected its new leader, @ErinOTooleMP. O'Toole inherits (and arguably expanded through new memberships) a rock solid party base that's not going anywhere. Check out vote retention: #cdnpoli
Now a lot of people don't know @ErinOTooleMP yet. That's okay, it shows he has brief window to define himself to non- @CPC_HQ voters. Check out the large segments of @liberal_party and @BlocQuebecois voters who've not yet formed an opinion about him: #cdnpoli
BTW for those of you wondering how the other major opposition leaders are doing, I'm going to slip that in right here: @yfblanchet @theJagmeetSingh #cdnpoli
Anyway, back to @ErinOTooleMP. History teachers us a fresh slate is a gift to a politician to use well or squander. Recall that his predecessor, @AndrewScheer began his ultimately failed tenure as @CPC_HQ leader in the same place both in terms of personal perception... #cdnpoli
...and in terms of his party's position with voters: #cdnpoli
No doubt, Conservative voters are fervently hoping @ErinOTooleMP does more with this than @AndrewScheer did.
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