After 4 decades, the policy of "strategic ambiguity" has run its course. It is no longer enough to deter a more assertive & powerful China. The US should embrace a policy of "strategic clarity" that makes explicit it would respond to any Chinese use of force against Taiwan.

The US can do this in a way consistent w its one-China policy so that it minimizes any risk to U.S.-Chinese relations. Such a change should strengthen U.S.-Chinese relations in the long term by improving deterrence & reducing the chances of a US-China war in the Taiwan Strait.

China’s aim to gain control of Taiwan, through force if necessary, needs to be taken seriously. No one should dismiss the possibility that Taiwan could be the next Hong Kong. Furthermore, deterring Taiwan from declaring independence is no longer a primary concern.

If the US were to fail to respond to China's use of force, regional allies such as Japan & South Korea would conclude the US cannot be relied on. Asian allies would either accommodate China, leading to the dissolution of U.S. alliances and the crumbling of the balance of power...

...or they would seek nuclear weapons in a bid to become strategically self-reliant. Either scenario would greatly increase the chance of war in a region that is central to the world’s economy and home to most of its people.

The basics of U.S. policy should remain: the US would avoid taking a stance on the content of a resolution of cross-strait differences & insist only that any outcome be peaceful & consensual. The ends of US policy would stay the same; what would change would be the means.

Those who argue this new policy extends U.S. commitments when it is overextended should not delude themselves: U.S. allies in Asia already assume the US will come to Taiwan’s defense. Strategic clarity sets a course for narrowing the gap between US commitments and capabilities.

The best way to ensure the US does not need to come to Taiwan’s defense is to signal China that it is prepared to do so. The stakes are enormous: What happens in the Taiwan Strait may well decide Asia’s future. Here is the full piece @ForeignAffairs https://fam.ag/3jD1HR5 .