People used to say "LOL nothing matters" to marvel that no Trump outrage drove his support much below 40%.

Also true: "LOL nothing matters" means that no Trump stunt or gambit can drive his support much above 44%. https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1301101980463570947

If every legal voter who attempts to vote is allowed to vote; if every legal vote cast is counted; Trump will lose and lose big.

Election talk is not talk about "what the people want."

Election talk is talk about "what the governing authorities will permit the people to do."

Nothing in recent political memory has been as stable as the 52-55% anti-Trump majority in the US.

What we've been uncertain about since 2016 is only this question:

"How vulnerable to authoritarian manipulation is the US political system in the 21st century?"

When pundits talk about the impact of this or that Trump stunt or gambit, they miss the crucial point.

Trump's chances in 2020 do not depend on anything Trump or Biden says or does.

Trump's chances depend entirely on whether he can stop legal votes from being cast or counted.

Voter suppression is the one and only election story of 2020. Trump gets that. Pundits should get it too.