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Thread on UK excess deaths throughout lockdown, and mortality displacement, with data from @ONS:Non-COVID excess deaths were above 5 year average through the height of lockdown... /1
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/analysisofdeathregistrationsnotinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19englandandwales28december2019to1may2020/28december2019to10july2020#causes-of-non-covid-19-deaths
Mortality displacement - Higher deaths in early 2020 could be contributing to lower deaths in recent weeks, because some people who may have died in later weeks may instead have died earlier
"(We cannot yet quantify how much of the fall is because of mortality displacement)"
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"(We cannot yet quantify how much of the fall is because of mortality displacement)"
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"Total deaths were also below/very similar to 5 year average earlier in the year (Weeks 4-10), possibly because of the relatively mild winter and low levels of circulating flu"
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"In Weeks 11-18, older age groups had the highest relative age-specific mortality rates (ASMR) for non-COVID deaths. In the more recent period to Week 28, these age groups have the LOWEST ASMR for non-COVID deaths. This further supports a mortality displacement effect"
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"Deaths in hospitals.. remain much lower than average, whereas deaths in care homes fell below average.. Deaths in private homes.. remain considerably above average.. *excess non-COVID deaths in private homes were higher than weekly COVID deaths in all settings from Wk26*"
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"Some deaths at home may be people who would have otherwise died elsewhere, particularly in hospitals.. This could indicate patients are not being admitted to hospital or being discharged sooner. For deaths at older ages, it could be that individuals choose to die at home.."
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"Deaths due to dementia, & symptoms, signs & ill-defined conditions peaked slightly later in Week 16, and have fallen more slowly. This could indicate some deaths due to dementia are linked to longer-term changes, such as changes to practice in care homes to combat COVID-19"
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"Deaths due to influenza & pneumonia were below the 5 year average earlier in 2020 probably because of the relatively mild winter and low levels of circulating flu. After a brief rise in Weeks 11-18, the levels are back to slightly below average levels for this time of year..
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"..It could be that increased social distancing has led to reduced infection rates for flu and other infectious conditions, or that some of the population susceptible to flu have died due to other causes such as COVID.. this could be another example of mortality displacement"
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"Diabetes, epilepsy & hypertensive diseases all increased >5 year average Weeks 11-18, & have remained above those levels (but to a lesser extent) since. These causes could all be linked to delayed access to care.. because they could be quickly fatal if treatment is delayed"
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"For people aged >65, deaths involving cerebral palsy & other paralytic syndromes have increased.. to above average in the 2nd & 3rd periods of 2020. The sustained high level.. may be because of a mild winter leading to more vulnerable people surviving longer into the year"
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