Ofqual chair Roger Taylor: 'The fundamental mistake was to believe this would ever be acceptable to the public'

Taylor says Ofqual's first choice was to hold exams, second was to delay exams, and third choice was to offer 'teacher certificate' - and says it was SOS that took decision without consultation with Ofqual that exams were to be cancelled and grades awarded

On the fiasco of mock exam appeal, Ofqual said they were not confident this could be delivered in statutory duties of Ofqual - but Williamson announced anyway. Ofqual attempted to find way to implement it, published this, but then contacted by SOS to say not in line with policy

Taylor adds the new guidance on mock appeals was agreed with Williamson's office before it was published, before SOS then called later that evening calling for it to be withdrawn!

Taylor asked how he thought there would be public support for the algorithm's increase in top grades for private schools - says the standardisation actually reduced advantage enjoyed by private schools, but said they have to have regard for government policy

Taylor said they ran a number of mechanisms to identify outlier candidates - but said a form of appeal was necessary to make this work, alongside a system of outreach to pupils to let them know they have a 'good' case for appeal (but then mock appeal announcement hit)

Taylor says the moderation process gave strong candidates from disadvantaged communities a better outcome than the unmoderated results... hmm, how can that be? CAGs were much higher ... (only 3% of calculated grades at Alevel were higher I think?)

Halfon asking if Ofqual did dummy run to check for outliers,Taylor says 'we were obviously aware of this and throughout June looking at this'. Was considering a mechanism to apply in advance of awarding,but that would involve making 'arbitary judgment that wouldn't be justified'

On informing the department about the risks - I think we're going to come back to that - but Taylor briefly said the DfE was informed about these (Just incase anybody did believe Williamson's tripe that he didn't know)

Taylor: 'Statistical predication is just not accurate enough. There was a strong belief the Autumn exam series would be the compensation for that, and that university places could be held open, and this would limit the damage. At the time it was felt this was a fair offer'

Interesting: Taylor said it wouldn't have been appropriate for Ofqual to ignore SOS on basis that they did not believe calculated grades would be deliverable in a way the public could trust - 'that would have been going beyond the reasonable behaviour of an independent regulator'

Julie Swan (exec director) asked about schools standardising CAGs before they were submitted: she says they were told they might look at prior attainment and adjust accordingly, but this was just to help them, she says -not sure she's picked up how much of an issue this is

On the centre assessed grades data submitted by schools - Taylor says it's 'absolutely essential that independent researchers have access to this so lessons can be learnt'

Asked who constructed the algorithm, Michelle Meadows says they consulted on the principles of it, they worked with 20 different technical experts across exam boards and chose algo that produced most accurate results. 'I don't believe the algorithm ever mutated', she adds

On future exams, Taylor says one of the lessons learned is: 'If you can't replicate normal grades, don't pretend you can. The objective was to enable progress, not award GCSE grades.'
Suggests that issuing teacher certificates, or giving some sort of test would work better

On giving greater weight to CAGs in the algorithm, Taylor says this would not have improved accuracy. On premise that this would have been more 'acceptable', he said this was approach of Scotland and didn't work out as more acceptable to pupils

Was expecting a bit of a bloodbath, but instead we're seeing the fightback of Ofqual I think. They are pushing blame back to the secretary of state (they didn't want calculated grades, they warned ministers of problems along the way, SOS took decisions without their knowledge)

Why did they hold back info about how the alogrithm worked?
Taylor says the primary constraint on transparency was to not publish info that would influence how schools would make their assessments/and then to make sure individuals could not work out what grades they had got

Taylor says the notion the algorithm was deficient is the wrong conclusion to draw from this. He also says 98% of grades were CAG or within one grade - 'not true to say there were large numbers of moves in grades that were injustifiable'

Ofqual challenged about the nuts changes like this: https://schoolsweek.co.uk/from-1-to-8-the-exams-algorithms-bizarre-grade-hikes/
They say the fairest thing to do was remove limits on grades for tiered papers - said less than 1% of lower tier students received higher grades. Said the decision was in favour of students

Good to see Ofqual officials getting flak on the BTEC grade delays, Halfon says it was an 'afterthought' and 'classic example of how we regard vocational quals, that they are forgotten about despite 450k pupils being affected' https://twitter.com/SchoolsWeek/status/1301103742893404160

Taylor again comes back to thinking instead about addressing problem of progression, rather than awarding grades, 'might have been able to think about it in a different way and look at fairness of progression'

Swan says she's heard from schools that said they were more cautious and less optimistic than neighbouring schools when submitting CAGs,but says it's 'moot point' to be given inflated grade and colleges have concerns that pupils from 'optimistic schools' now unsuited for courses

She adds it's 'wrong' to assume students in centres that were 'perhaps more realistic' have been disadvantaged -- WHAT?! That makes no sense at all

On what advice was given, she again goes back to the advice on looking at previous centre results/and also pupil prior attainment when awarding CAGs was just for a 'sense check'. But exam boards in discussions with some schools that this was a mistake and going through appeals!

Attention now turns to this year's year 13, big concerns about them being disadvantaged. Taylor says 'some form of standarised test that gives pupil ability to demonstrate their knowledge is essential to any awarding system that students think is fair', but 'fast moving situation

Taylor says they are 'very conscious of the difficulties of delaying 2021 exams, but are also very conscious of the enormous benefit from delays and recognise the value in trying to make this work'. But Swan says delay of 2 weeks would get 'challenging' to deliver results on time

Looks like traditional exams for next year, but potentially with other set of papers for those who can't make the exams (under consideration by Ofqual). But no decision for 'weeks' yet as has to be 'common timetable' with Wales and NI

Sounds like exams are absolutely going ahead next year, come what may. When asked what would happen if further lockdowns though - Taylor says they have enough time to come up with a solution, such as online tests or additional papers

Ofqual said it did do assessment on pupils with outlier grades - but hasn't published it, although it would be open to. Plan was to approach school/college so they were headed up to them being very likely to have a successful appeal claim

Meadows says she remembers in March discussing with DfE officials and the minister that CAGs were likely to be optimistic.
'We knew from the outset there would be large changes from what teachers expected.. we set the risks out in a number of papers' https://twitter.com/SchoolsWeek/status/1301115179363643393

Halfon asks about Ofqual shutting itself down to press who were trying to get answers. 'Shouldn't you have been out there reassuring people rather than hiding away'.
Taylor says they were in 'difficult' convo with DfE over the new awarding policy and trying to resolve it

Taylor adds: 'We felt very strongly it would not be helpful to be talking to the media until this had been clearly resolved'

Zing: Halfon points out Ofqual have a director of comms, plus 10 people working under them - 'given you're spending all this money, why an earth did you hide yourself away in the Ofqual attic and refuse to reassure parents and press trying to explain what was going on'

Taylor: 'If we had entered the debate at that point it would have increased the level of confusion - often the best PR advice is don't speak until you can speak with authority and clarity' (crisis comms peeps get paid SO MUCH to say 'don't talk' ... LOL)

Halfon points out Ofqual apparently looking to appoint another comms person on £80k!
Oh, Dame Glenys (Acting chief regulator) comes in: 'I have a strong interest in comms capacity and do have that structure under active review'

On whether Ofqual is still fit for purpose - Taylor says it has taken a 'major blow' but points to successes like bringing in new GCSEs. Stacey says this situation has shown the importance of an independent regulator https://twitter.com/SchoolsWeek/status/1301118104764903426

Stacey goes into Liam Neeson's 'Taken' mode: https://twitter.com/SchoolsWeek/status/1301118575831404545

Right - that's that. I've got about six million stories to write now

And here’s what the DfE had to say