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Ok, If I& #39;ve said it once I& #39;ve said it a dozen times. Something happens when @SurveyUSA does a poll in California. I don& #39;t even see who they are polling, what the survey is about, I run straight to the crosstabs and exclaim... (with gifs)...
This one comes from San Diego where they have historically had some particularly bad polling. For starters, they *randomly call people* and of the 534 that say they are voters, they deem 517 "likely to vote" A 97% rate! Uhm....
So, even before they get into any of their polling, in a state with a great voter file, they& #39;ve decided to contact people literally based on their phone prefix and ask them to say if they are a voter... (Magically nearly all of them are). Then, the mess begins.
They& #39;ve managed to come up with a sample where independents are only 18% of the likely voters, but these voters have been 29%, 32% and 32% of the votes cast in the last three elections. You can& #39;t do a poll in SD and mess up this basic fact - independents matter there.
Then, they have Reps turning out at 32% of the total votes cast, Dems at 49%. I& #39;ve been playing with the math on this, and...
With a reasonable projected total turnout of just 78%, Dems have 81% turnout rate, which is OK, but Reps have to have a turnout rate of 115%!!
With a reasonable projected total turnout of just 78%, Dems have 81% turnout rate, which is OK, but Reps have to have a turnout rate of 115%!!
I don& #39;t know most of the candidates in this poll, but I have heard of Trump and Biden - and this poll has Biden winning by 24-points - about the margin that Clinton won in THE COUNTY... She has to have beaten Trump by 40-points in the City. If you can& #39;t get that race right...
Honestly, I don& #39;t know what you& #39;re doing polling in this state @surveyusa. This is horrific. Anyone interpreting this poll, or attempting to report on it, should just do this.
If you& #39;re thinking... where did this come from... and want to see my past screeds on @surveyUSA, just check either of these twitter searches:
https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40paulmitche11%20SurveyUSA&src=typed_query
https://twitter.com/search... href=" https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40ca_120%20SurveyUSA&src=typed_query">https://twitter.com/search...
https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40paulmitche11%20SurveyUSA&src=typed_query
and, you can see the garbage poll yourself, and make your own conclusions: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=39181317-5e1c-436b-906f-1784b0f80807">https://www.surveyusa.com/client/Po...
