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Ok, If I've said it once I've said it a dozen times. Something happens when @SurveyUSA does a poll in California. I don't even see who they are polling, what the survey is about, I run straight to the crosstabs and exclaim... (with gifs)...
This one comes from San Diego where they have historically had some particularly bad polling. For starters, they *randomly call people* and of the 534 that say they are voters, they deem 517 "likely to vote" A 97% rate! Uhm....
So, even before they get into any of their polling, in a state with a great voter file, they've decided to contact people literally based on their phone prefix and ask them to say if they are a voter... (Magically nearly all of them are). Then, the mess begins.
They've managed to come up with a sample where independents are only 18% of the likely voters, but these voters have been 29%, 32% and 32% of the votes cast in the last three elections. You can't do a poll in SD and mess up this basic fact - independents matter there.
Then, they have Reps turning out at 32% of the total votes cast, Dems at 49%. I've been playing with the math on this, and...
With a reasonable projected total turnout of just 78%, Dems have 81% turnout rate, which is OK, but Reps have to have a turnout rate of 115%!!
With a reasonable projected total turnout of just 78%, Dems have 81% turnout rate, which is OK, but Reps have to have a turnout rate of 115%!!
I don't know most of the candidates in this poll, but I have heard of Trump and Biden - and this poll has Biden winning by 24-points - about the margin that Clinton won in THE COUNTY... She has to have beaten Trump by 40-points in the City. If you can't get that race right...
Honestly, I don't know what you're doing polling in this state @surveyusa. This is horrific. Anyone interpreting this poll, or attempting to report on it, should just do this.
If you're thinking... where did this come from... and want to see my past screeds on @surveyUSA, just check either of these twitter searches:
https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40paulmitche11%20SurveyUSA&src=typed_query
https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40ca_120%20SurveyUSA&src=typed_query
https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40paulmitche11%20SurveyUSA&src=typed_query
https://twitter.com/search?q=from%3A%40ca_120%20SurveyUSA&src=typed_query
and, you can see the garbage poll yourself, and make your own conclusions: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=39181317-5e1c-436b-906f-1784b0f80807
