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Not really into predicting stuff, but I don't think many people (media or voters) are prepared for how catastrophic this coming election will likely be. Nobody is being even close to creative enough with the various outcomes at hand.
I would bet a very significant amount of money that Donald Trump will declare himself the winner on the evening of Tuesday, Nov. 3rd regardless of how many votes are counted or the trajectory of the election. I don't really see any way he doesn't declare himself the winner?
The message could be something along the lines of "I won the election, now they are trying to steal it from me". The goal in making mail-in more difficult is not just voter suppression but also to allow a window for a path to victory through courts (and chaos).
This is easy to do even if it’s a Biden landslide. There are like b/w 8-11 battle ground states where a 2% victory might historically be a blowout.
Consider that 65% of dems intend to vote by mail and 65% of republicans intend to vote in person, and all of a sudden it's likely that battle ground states might bey very tight on election night.
That's not the hard part to imagine. Question is once Trump frames a victory on election night, what does he do? Despite an incredible number of data points, most still don't appreciate that there is literally nothing he will not do. Everything is on the table.
Trump is a gangster. That's not a political view, thats a fact. His entire life philosophy is not only shunning the rules (read: laws) but actively skirting them and making fun of those that follow them. (LOSERS!) He has zero regard for any rule of law, custom or tradition in US.
Supporters think this is what makes him effective and detractors think he is going to destroy the republic.
Regardless of political leaning, our election process is not really set up to deal with a gangster sociopath. Upon "victory", Trumps endorsement of right wing conspiracies will border on treason, his legal challenges to the election will make Bush v Gore in 2000 look like a joke.
Marshall law with troops in the streets, suspension of habeas corpus, and multiple lawsuits by state are all on the table. Not limited to domestic action. Putin could do something like invade the Baltic's so Trump can declare a national emergency.
I mentioned this all to a friend and they thought I was nuts that it would be anything but a fair transfer of power in a Trump loss, but I don't know…I hope I am wrong but I think it's nuts to assume that Trump would rely on customs and traditions of normal democracy?
Trump is pretty well set up to fight this battle. Bill Barr is partial to imperial dictatorship, or at least widespread presidential power. The guy believes in essentially giving the president more power than a king. Everybody around Trump is morally bankrupt.
Gore lost Florida by 537 votes and after SC ruling stepped away because dems were worried about ripping the country apart. Nobody in Trump party has that perspective. Our politics don't have conventions for how to handle him. Hope not, but maybe Interesting times ahead.
