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As the NYT reported in an article you’ve probably read:
“up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus”
Most correctly interpet this as evidence of the “Casedemic” being used to keep schools closed - because it is!
6 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html
“up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus”
Most correctly interpet this as evidence of the “Casedemic” being used to keep schools closed - because it is!
6 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html
But what I see is 90% asymptomatic cases!
Dead viral shedding occurs long after infection so PCR can actually be used to confirm that a large number of people are asymptomatic
You may argue, low viral RNA doesn’t necessarily mean they are asymptomatic
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Dead viral shedding occurs long after infection so PCR can actually be used to confirm that a large number of people are asymptomatic
You may argue, low viral RNA doesn’t necessarily mean they are asymptomatic
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But there’s lots of proof that they are
96% of PCR confirmed cases in this prison study were asymptomatic
I also got a message from a midwest plant manager telling me that of 10k tested, 1/3 tested positive, 95% of the positive cases were asymptomatic
8 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX
96% of PCR confirmed cases in this prison study were asymptomatic
I also got a message from a midwest plant manager telling me that of 10k tested, 1/3 tested positive, 95% of the positive cases were asymptomatic
8 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX
Now to be accurate, I should say asymptomatic or very mild, because it’s possible you had the sniffles and are still shedding dead virus (for up to 12 weeks), but the point is 90-95% of people (depending on age) brush this off with no problems
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This is a second proof of pre-existing T-Cell immunity as a major factor in COVID-19 dynamics
It may be a combination of T-Cell with other immune response, but people’s immune system can fight off SARS-CoV-2
The first proof was in this thread (highly recommend this thread)
10 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1298246346974154757
It may be a combination of T-Cell with other immune response, but people’s immune system can fight off SARS-CoV-2
The first proof was in this thread (highly recommend this thread)
10 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1298246346974154757
Now let’s turn to antibody testing which, unlike PCR, can not amplify small amounts of RNA to a detectable quantity
If 90-95% of people have minimal levels of RNA, and are asymptomatic, then it’s logical that they are not producing much antibody
And hence not being detected
11 https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1276855250083856386
If 90-95% of people have minimal levels of RNA, and are asymptomatic, then it’s logical that they are not producing much antibody
And hence not being detected
11 https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1276855250083856386
Consider this big AB study in Italy which found only 2.5% AB positive
“Hint: ~37% testing positive lost taste/smell but only ~25% of people losing smell/taste tested positive”
That’s just not possible. Since we know so many are asymptomatic, its clear the %s are way off
12 https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1290632180897665026
“Hint: ~37% testing positive lost taste/smell but only ~25% of people losing smell/taste tested positive”
That’s just not possible. Since we know so many are asymptomatic, its clear the %s are way off
12 https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1290632180897665026
Remember the famous Bergamo 57% infected study?
This one result really messed with my thinking because it indicated that without mitigation, everybody can get infected
This had to be a variable I account for in any model of COVID-19
13 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-antibodies/over-half-of-people-tested-in-italys-bergamo-have-covid-19-antibodies-idUSKBN23F2JV
This one result really messed with my thinking because it indicated that without mitigation, everybody can get infected
This had to be a variable I account for in any model of COVID-19
13 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-antibodies/over-half-of-people-tested-in-italys-bergamo-have-covid-19-antibodies-idUSKBN23F2JV
Except, when a new countrywide AB study was released a couple months later, seroprevalence in Bergamo had dropped from 57% to 24%
A decrease of 2.4x
So the problem that we have is that because so many are asymptomatic, they produce low AB counts, and the ABs wane quickly
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A decrease of 2.4x
So the problem that we have is that because so many are asymptomatic, they produce low AB counts, and the ABs wane quickly
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Remember the big Spanish AB studies from June-July
They did two runs of tests about 6 weeks apart in late April and early June
Even though infections were still happening during that period, the seroprevalence remained virtually unchanged
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They did two runs of tests about 6 weeks apart in late April and early June
Even though infections were still happening during that period, the seroprevalence remained virtually unchanged
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We cannot accurately know what % of the population has been infected because it’s too late
We will never identify the asymptomatic infections from 3-4 months ago
When people talk about herd immunity at 10-20%, that’s only what they can measure
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We will never identify the asymptomatic infections from 3-4 months ago
When people talk about herd immunity at 10-20%, that’s only what they can measure
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Let’s assume 40% asymptomatics go IgG negative early and so you lose them right off the bat
The rest will slowly fade away over the next months
If 95% are asymptomatic, you will be undercounting infected by X fold depending on how long after infection you test
17 https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1275022730660909056
The rest will slowly fade away over the next months
If 95% are asymptomatic, you will be undercounting infected by X fold depending on how long after infection you test
17 https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1275022730660909056
So this why a measurable 10-20% can be herd immunity
You’re looking at a far bigger percentage in reality
It doesn’t take complicated SIR modeling to explain it (but feel free to do so if you want)
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You’re looking at a far bigger percentage in reality
It doesn’t take complicated SIR modeling to explain it (but feel free to do so if you want)
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Still not convinced?
AB studies consistently report asymptomatics as representing 25-35% of AB positive
But PCR which is far more sensitive and can amplify RNA from a trace amount, says 95% are asymptomatic
See the difference?
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AB studies consistently report asymptomatics as representing 25-35% of AB positive
But PCR which is far more sensitive and can amplify RNA from a trace amount, says 95% are asymptomatic
See the difference?
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What does all this mean?
1) The denominator of those who’ve been infected is much larger than we know
IFR is much lower than we have calculated - lower by a factor of 3-4x - probably about 0.1% -so a bad flu season
2) @MLevitt_NP2013’s Burnout is likely to be herd immunity
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1) The denominator of those who’ve been infected is much larger than we know
IFR is much lower than we have calculated - lower by a factor of 3-4x - probably about 0.1% -so a bad flu season
2) @MLevitt_NP2013’s Burnout is likely to be herd immunity
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3) Asia-Oceania immunity makes more sense in the context where they might only have 5% more asymptomatics but that means they have 99.75% asymps compared to 95% in Europe + Americas.
4) Many, many of you have already been infected and just don’t know it yet
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4) Many, many of you have already been infected and just don’t know it yet
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5) Continued lockdowns make no sense
6) Some % of asymptomatics spread, otherwise can’t explain how virus circulated
7) The disease COVID-19 only affects about 5% of population
8) With an IFR of 0.1% and assuming 220k total deaths, we’ll have 220 million infected in USA
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6) Some % of asymptomatics spread, otherwise can’t explain how virus circulated
7) The disease COVID-19 only affects about 5% of population
8) With an IFR of 0.1% and assuming 220k total deaths, we’ll have 220 million infected in USA
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In the end, COVID-19 will go the way of the 1957 pandemic
We will have the same deaths/million
The world didn’t stop then, sports weren’t cancelled, it was a fairly unremarkable event
Highly recommend you read this thread for some historical context
23 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1287056551245733888
We will have the same deaths/million
The world didn’t stop then, sports weren’t cancelled, it was a fairly unremarkable event
Highly recommend you read this thread for some historical context
23 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1287056551245733888
That’s it
Hope it wasn’t too long
If you enjoyed please RT the first tweet
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Hope it wasn’t too long
If you enjoyed please RT the first tweet
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