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It definitely matters that the Communist Party rules China instead of some other group, but not as much--or for the right reasons--as China hawks assert. /1
A Populist, militarist regime in China, with nuclear weapons, determined to address through aggression all of its historic grievances and aspired glory would make the current crew look like Sweden. /2
There& #39;s a good basis to argue that post-Mao, the main impact of CCP Marxism has been a more cautious country than would have otherwise obtained. /3
It feared becoming the bullseye of US regime-change agression and so became the hidey-bidey Panda as it pursued long-term economic power as the basis for its inevitable glorious destiny. /4
The CCP that emerged after Tiananmen was ideologically hollow; China& #39;s success of the past two decades may have achieved what Mao and generation failed to sustain--a positive feedback loop that is setting them up for a real example of hubris, in an old school Greek kinda way. /5
I suspect that when historians sift the ashes of our decaying age, they will conclude, "While they fretted and raged against Communism, it was Populism that grew like a cancer within, not the external assault that never came."
The most relevant insights from Xi& #39;s and the CCP& #39;s "marxism" as an engine of strategy is that it& #39;s a pretty simple engine-- inevitability of socialism prevailing; manichean struggle between good (China/socialism) and Evil (Capitalist hegemony).
Ironically, the CCP& #39;s fetish up until now with objectivism made them pay serious attention to strategic trends, science, sociological factors--the kinds of things that the NIC& #39;s quadrennial "Global Trends" covers, and which are scrupulously ignored by most administrations.
Much of the rest is just transparent justification of the CCP& #39;s monopoly of power. Their world view and strategy owe as much to Realist IR theory as anything Marx, Lenin, or Mao every said/wrote.
Note, I should have said *some* China hawks as it& #39;s a subjective label, not always self-applied. There are many with hawkish views based on what the CCP says and does rather than applying rote "commie" framing or Soviet tropes.
This is not the Cold War. I wish it was as simple.
This is not the Cold War. I wish it was as simple.
