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It definitely matters that the Communist Party rules China instead of some other group, but not as much--or for the right reasons--as China hawks assert. /1
A Populist, militarist regime in China, with nuclear weapons, determined to address through aggression all of its historic grievances and aspired glory would make the current crew look like Sweden. /2
There's a good basis to argue that post-Mao, the main impact of CCP Marxism has been a more cautious country than would have otherwise obtained. /3
It feared becoming the bullseye of US regime-change agression and so became the hidey-bidey Panda as it pursued long-term economic power as the basis for its inevitable glorious destiny. /4
The CCP that emerged after Tiananmen was ideologically hollow; China's success of the past two decades may have achieved what Mao and generation failed to sustain--a positive feedback loop that is setting them up for a real example of hubris, in an old school Greek kinda way. /5
I suspect that when historians sift the ashes of our decaying age, they will conclude, "While they fretted and raged against Communism, it was Populism that grew like a cancer within, not the external assault that never came."
The most relevant insights from Xi's and the CCP's "marxism" as an engine of strategy is that it's a pretty simple engine-- inevitability of socialism prevailing; manichean struggle between good (China/socialism) and Evil (Capitalist hegemony).
Ironically, the CCP's fetish up until now with objectivism made them pay serious attention to strategic trends, science, sociological factors--the kinds of things that the NIC's quadrennial "Global Trends" covers, and which are scrupulously ignored by most administrations.
Much of the rest is just transparent justification of the CCP's monopoly of power. Their world view and strategy owe as much to Realist IR theory as anything Marx, Lenin, or Mao every said/wrote.
Note, I should have said *some* China hawks as it's a subjective label, not always self-applied. There are many with hawkish views based on what the CCP says and does rather than applying rote "commie" framing or Soviet tropes.
This is not the Cold War. I wish it was as simple.
This is not the Cold War. I wish it was as simple.
