The tech bubble is w/in 12-24mths of a major bust IMO. Growth has not structurally accelerated during pandemic- it has been pulled forward. Comps will be tough from 2021; growth will slow; supply & competition is ramping & when supply>demand it will get ugly. Will start in 2021.

In the dot. com bubble, people forgot tech companies are subject to the same prosaic laws of demand & supply and competition as other industries. The pandemic has accelerated growth temporarily, as coys the world over clamour for digital transformation & consumer adoption hastens

Almost every software/tech company you look at is growing very rapidly at present. All the BNPL companies in Ausy are all growing fast. This is not sustainable & is a temporary demand/supply imbalance. Growth will slow from 2021 and supply ramp, and it's going to get competitive.

Just like in the dot. com bubble, top line growth will slow and profits disappoint, and there will be a downward cascade. As access to funding becomes more challenging as growth & profitability challenges emerge, there will be deflationary spending trends through the supply chain

Valuations are in loon-town. At the top of bubbles, people extrapolate top of cycle revenue growth rates & margins way into the future. When you revise down revenue growth estimates & margin expectations, multiples also fall and the multiplicative impact can be catastrophic.

In normal market conditions, there is a competitive jostle; some coys are gaining share & momentum & others are losing. At present, all tech coys are growing fast. That's not normal, and it's a bubble. There should be winners and losers, even if the industry overall is doing well

Like in 1999, the force of the growth narrative is so strong, and the growth potential seen to be so unlimited, that such realities and growth limitations are ignored. A common symptom is absolute market cap levels reaching extremely high levels, just like we saw in 1999.

This is symptomatic of a lack of any sort of appreciation of the practical limitations of high rates of compounding growth. The world is of a finite size and you can't sustain high % growth rates as you attain increasing scale. It's only a matter of time until there's a reckoning