1) Is Quebec already on the verge of a second #COVID19 wave? On Monday, the Premier held a news conference to warn Quebecers to show more discipline as the number of cases has risen across the province. In this thread, I will assess the chances of an imminent second wave.

2) The concern arises partly from what's going on in France and, more gravely, in Spain. The situation is dire enough for Italy to consider testing tourists and workers from those countries for the #coronavirus. “Here we go again,” reads a New York Times headline Monday night.

3) In Quebec, an outbreak at a Quebec City karaoke bar is being blamed for at least 10 of the 140 new #COVID19 cases in the province and perhaps an even higher number to be declared tomorrow. Small outbreaks are occurring all over the province, one traced to a wedding.

4) Since the start of the school year last week, the #coronavirus has been linked to at least 20 educational institutions in the province, according to the grassroots tracking website http://covidecolesquebec.org . To my knowledge, however, there have been no direct school outbreaks.

5) But even the Premier acknowledged it's only a matter of time before a #COVID19 outbreak occurs in a school. This will likely happen sooner rather than later, given how many Quebec schools are poorly ventilated and the high number of mask-less students crowded into classrooms.

6) One could see the look of worry etched onto Health Minister Christian Dubé’s face as he warned police might issue fines should large groups of people continue to flout public-health guidelines. Perhaps now is the time to reduce the size of 250-person public gatherings.

7) One of the unmistakable indicators of a second wave would be a steady rise in #COVID19 hospitalizations. In Spain, the number of such hospitalizations has quintupled since early July. In Quebec, however, they're not surging despite a small uptick for two days last week.

8) Meanwhile, the province’s eldercare homes are in much better shape than they were during the peak of the first wave of the #pandemic at the end of April and beginning of May. Within the past 24 hours, the province has counted two new #COVID19 cases in those institutions.

9) Montreal, for its part, posted 25 #COVID19 cases Monday, down from 46 the day before, as the orange line in the chart below shows. But it’s safe to assume that orange line will start to go back up once outbreaks flare up in elementary and high schools.

10) The city reported a few new #COVID cases in densely populated districts like Côte-des-Neiges, with packed schools. Public health adviser Richard Massé was asked about requiring students to wear masks in the classroom. His response? It would make it harder for some to learn.

11) The upshot is Montreal and the province are not on the verge of an imminent second wave. We’d see more ominous signs first, like a spike in hospitalizations. But we are witnessing a spike in emergency-room overcrowding, as the chart below indicates. Stay safe. End of thread.