. @frank_seravalli reported that the Jets are open to the movement of either Ehlers and Laine and I got thoughts... some thoughts that may surprise you and some that may not.
1) I'm off the mind that a smart GM is always open to moving anyone. They used to say that when Gretzky was traded it showed that anyone is movable. Ehlers and Laine shouldn't be untouchable. If the price is right and it makes sense for your team, you make the move.
2) The Jets need to improve their team. Winger is their strength, while C and D is their weakness. It makes sense that they look to moving one of Wheeler, Connor, Ehlers, and Laine as they have the luxury of having all 4 of them. Even their depth is stronger at W.
3) In *most situations*, I'd suggest Ehlers is the one you don't move. Ehlers has provided the Jets more value despite significantly fewer minutes. While these stats are estimates, given the results, he is most likely the best of the three.
4) I would suggest that these numbers undervalue the potential value Ehlers could provide to the Jets. Ehlers has played under 5 mins of SH ice time in the past two season, none being a regular shift. IMO, Ehlers is likely a very good PKer, although there is no sample to support.
5) Ehlers is likely the best overall player of the 3, but they are all very different players. Kyle Connor is the better driver of EV offense, but the weakest defensively. Laine is the best PP driver of offense. They all have their uses, strengths, and weaknesses.
6) That said, the market *tends* to overvalue drivers of offense relative to their overall ability.
In other words, if two players are equally as effective, the one that drives offense more tends to garner a better return in trade AND costs more against the cap to keep.
7a) A lot of the stats friendly crowd is probably nodding in agreement at this point. HOWEVER, all this isn't some secret privy only to those that follow hockey analytics on Twitter. Some teams know this. Because of this, that may change the value and return of these players. It
7b) may then make it more reasonable and rational to trade Ehlers. Other teams may agree to the above and adjust the market accordingly. The market doesn't seem 100% efficient here but it is improving as people do get it.
8) Ehlers may give the Jets the most value, both relative to deployment and overall; it may still make sense for Ehlers to be the one to be dropped. If he's the least utilized anyways, then he is the most expendable piece.
It's more nuanced than who tends to be over/under rated.
/fin Thanks for "listening" to my rant.
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