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A quick thread on Kenny Pickett, who might be the most interesting player in the ACC this year (IMO). I& #39;m high on Pitt for lots of reason (mostly on defense) but it& #39;s hard to predict big things for them unless you believe Pickett is due for a breakthrough. (1/9)
Of course, predicting a breakout season for Pickett -- a guy we& #39;ve seen for at least a decent portion of three seasons now -- is a tough sell. Don& #39;t we already know who he is? Eh, maybe not. In 2 full seasons as a starter, he& #39;s had 2 entirely different offenses. (2/9)
In 2019, Pickett& #39;s pass/game 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="âŹď¸" title="Pfeil nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach oben"> by 77% - a massive shift in style. His 45 dropbacks/game was 2nd-most in FBS (behind behind Wazzu). And that& #39;s all underscoring a very bad number: Pickett had just 13 TD passes. The other 15 QBs w/40+ dropbacks/game averaged twice that (26.6). 3/9
But instead of looking at counting stats, look at Pickett& #39;s rate stats: QBR, completion %, yards/attempt, yards/dropback, comp% of 10+ yards, off target rate, catchable attempts and sack rate all improved despite nearly doubling his dropbacks. That& #39;s actually good progress. 4/9
Then there& #39;s the help -- or lack thereof -- that Pickett got. As noted before, Pitt had 44 drops, most in FBS. On designed runs, Pitt avg 4.02/carry -- 117th in FBS. Pitt was better on 1st down (4.83, 77th) but ran on 1st down among the lowest rates in FBS. (5/9)
Back to those TD stats. Pickett wasnât bad in the red zone: 58.7% comp, 6 TD, 1 INT, 70% catchable targets. BUT... his sack rate nearly 2x P5 avg, 5 drops on 36 catchable targets & just 35 YAC despite Pickett largely throwing short (4.8 air yards/target, 117th in FBS). 6/9
Pitt simply didn& #39;t capitalize on opps. It had 63 first downs in opposing territory on drives that didn& #39;t end with points (177 total plays on non-scoring drives in + territory, 4th most in FBS). Had 46 drives in + territory w/o points (3rd-worst P5) + 10 drops on such drives. 7/9
Now Pickett goes into Year 2 in Mark Whipple& #39;s offense. The O-line looks OK. The ground game almost has to be better. Narduzzi says this is the deepest crop of WRs/TEs he& #39;s had. He& #39;ll still throw a lot, but more balance than 2019. So, big step forward? 8/9
Despite that, here& #39;s some reality: Pickett has 779 pass attempts past 2 years, 16th-most in FBS, but just 25 TDs, 81st. By comparison, Trevor Lawrence has 25 pass TD since his last INT. Pickett is 98th in comp%, 132nd in yd/att & 105th in Total QBR. (Crap, counted wrong⌠9/10)
Narduzzi says Pickett& #39;s got NFL talent comparing favorably with Kirk Cousins, Connor Cook, Nate Peterman. (I know, Peter man). Pickett hasn& #39;t been dealt a great hand thus far. He has better cards for 2020. Can he make something of it? If yes, Pitt& #39;s gonna be very good. (Fin.)
Another fun tidbit on PickettâŚ
QBs who saw 20+% increase in dropbacks/QB start from 2018 to 2019 (min 8 starts) and their change in yards/att. Pickett again looks good, all things considered.
QBs who saw 20+% increase in dropbacks/QB start from 2018 to 2019 (min 8 starts) and their change in yards/att. Pickett again looks good, all things considered.
