A quick thread on Kenny Pickett, who might be the most interesting player in the ACC this year (IMO). I'm high on Pitt for lots of reason (mostly on defense) but it's hard to predict big things for them unless you believe Pickett is due for a breakthrough. (1/9)

Of course, predicting a breakout season for Pickett -- a guy we've seen for at least a decent portion of three seasons now -- is a tough sell. Don't we already know who he is? Eh, maybe not. In 2 full seasons as a starter, he's had 2 entirely different offenses. (2/9)

In 2019, Pickett's pass/game by 77% - a massive shift in style. His 45 dropbacks/game was 2nd-most in FBS (behind behind Wazzu). And that's all underscoring a very bad number: Pickett had just 13 TD passes. The other 15 QBs w/40+ dropbacks/game averaged twice that (26.6). 3/9

But instead of looking at counting stats, look at Pickett's rate stats: QBR, completion %, yards/attempt, yards/dropback, comp% of 10+ yards, off target rate, catchable attempts and sack rate all improved despite nearly doubling his dropbacks. That's actually good progress. 4/9

Then there's the help -- or lack thereof -- that Pickett got. As noted before, Pitt had 44 drops, most in FBS. On designed runs, Pitt avg 4.02/carry -- 117th in FBS. Pitt was better on 1st down (4.83, 77th) but ran on 1st down among the lowest rates in FBS. (5/9)

Back to those TD stats. Pickett wasn’t bad in the red zone: 58.7% comp, 6 TD, 1 INT, 70% catchable targets. BUT... his sack rate nearly 2x P5 avg, 5 drops on 36 catchable targets & just 35 YAC despite Pickett largely throwing short (4.8 air yards/target, 117th in FBS). 6/9

Pitt simply didn't capitalize on opps. It had 63 first downs in opposing territory on drives that didn't end with points (177 total plays on non-scoring drives in + territory, 4th most in FBS). Had 46 drives in + territory w/o points (3rd-worst P5) + 10 drops on such drives. 7/9

Now Pickett goes into Year 2 in Mark Whipple's offense. The O-line looks OK. The ground game almost has to be better. Narduzzi says this is the deepest crop of WRs/TEs he's had. He'll still throw a lot, but more balance than 2019. So, big step forward? 8/9

Despite that, here's some reality: Pickett has 779 pass attempts past 2 years, 16th-most in FBS, but just 25 TDs, 81st. By comparison, Trevor Lawrence has 25 pass TD since his last INT. Pickett is 98th in comp%, 132nd in yd/att & 105th in Total QBR. (Crap, counted wrong… 9/10)

Narduzzi says Pickett's got NFL talent comparing favorably with Kirk Cousins, Connor Cook, Nate Peterman. (I know, Peter man). Pickett hasn't been dealt a great hand thus far. He has better cards for 2020. Can he make something of it? If yes, Pitt's gonna be very good. (Fin.)

Another fun tidbit on Pickett…

QBs who saw 20+% increase in dropbacks/QB start from 2018 to 2019 (min 8 starts) and their change in yards/att. Pickett again looks good, all things considered.