Thread by @DearPandemic, 1/ Q: So the CDC just released data that said 94% of [...]

1/ Q: So the CDC just released data that said 94% of U.S. COVID-19 deaths had underlying medical conditions?

A: FALSE.

We’ve heard this interpretation is making the rounds, but it’s just not correct.

So what did the @CDCgov data actually say?

2/ The CDC report summarized all deaths in the U.S. from Feb until August 22nd with COVID-19 on the death certificate (161,392 total deaths).

The CDC reports that for 6% of these deaths COVID-19 was the *only* cause mentioned.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

3/ For all other COVID-19 deaths there were on avg. 2.6 additional conditions/causes. Surprising? No. US death certificates have spaces for immediate causes & several lines for underlying conditions. For *any* cause of death, it would be unusual for only one cause to be listed.

4/ So what were among the most common additional causes of death mentioned?

• Influenza and pneumonia (68,004 cases)
• Respiratory Failure (54,803 cases)
• Respiratory Distress Syndrome (21,899 cases)
• Cardiac Arrest (20,210 cases)
• Sepsis (14,053)

5/ So along with COVID-19, these individuals *stopped breathing*, and their *hearts stopped*.

I think we can agree that these particular additional causes of death are not “underlying medical conditions.”

6/ What DO we know about COVID-19 mortality & chronic conditions? It’s clear that chronic conditions can raise risk of COVID-19 mortality, but it’s important to remember that many “co-morbidities” being reported are common conditions that are not associated with imminent death.

7/For example, hypertension is often counted as an underlying condition in published tallies of COVID-19 deaths:

What % of Americans have hypertension?

• 74.5% of Americans 60 and over
• 54.5% of Americans ages 40-59
• 22.4% of Americans ages 18-39
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db364.htm

8/ This means that assuming everyone who died of COVID-19 with a “co-morbidity” was already severely ill is not true.

9/ The troubling implication of this misinterpretation of the CDC data is that we are over-counting COVID-19 deaths &/or that many people dying of COVID-19 were on death’s door anyway. The Nerdy Girls would be *delighted* if the real burden of COVID-19 was less than it appears.

10/ Alas that is not what the data say. As we recently posted, the US has seen ~200,000 deaths ABOVE and BEYOND what would have been expected based on mortality in previous years (when lots of people were already dying of underlying chronic conditions). https://www.facebook.com/dearpandemic/photos/a.105625617732761/170173754611280

@jrgoldstein1 & Ron Lee estimate the *average* person dying of COVID-19 had 11.7 yrs remaining life expectancy. For each person who may have died soon anyway, another would have been expected to live *much longer than 11.7 years* in the absence of COVID-19. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/08/19/2006392117

Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics

What would a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? Life expectancy for 2020 would drop by 2.9 y. Those dying would lose...

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/08/19/2006392117

12/ BOTTOM LINE:

COVID-19 mortality is serious stuff, and having your lungs, heart, and other organs fail is not typically considered “underlying medical conditions.”

13/ We desperately wish it weren’t so. But acknowledging facts is crucial to us all working TOGETHER to find solutions and properly assess the sacrifices and trade-offs we are collectively making on many fronts as we battle this pandemic. #infodemic #epitwitter @DrTomFrieden

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