1/ Cycle of RELEVANCE to IRRELEVANCE

from celebrated → coveted (by investors) → *something changes* → criticized (by citizens + watchdogs) → condemned → barely discussed...

We forget 10yrs ago
Big Oil was enemy → Big Tech was ascendantly celebrated––til now.

I predict––

2/–– that the cycle will move from Big Tech

‘wow this is new + important + exciting’ (early developers + adopters)→ this will be huge (early investors)→ FOMO (late investor) → ‘hold up, wait a second’ (early critics) → ‘oh, hell no’ (late critics) → backlash

to...

3/ ...cycle will move to Medtech

Where exciting breakthroughs will positively enthrall, shock + surprise. Investors will make fortunes for next decade 2020-2030. Critics will raise issues. Backlash in 2030... https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/13/medtech-is-a-different-beast-than-biotech-in-the-life-sciences-pack/

4/ Here’s the cycle from Big Oil to Big Tech.

The key historical thing:

1 Critics don’t target SMALL cos

2 Small co’s must first get BIG––and entrepreneurs + investors make BIG outsized returns

3 BIG returns attract BIG attention + criticism
Repeat https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/technology/big-oil-faded-will-big-tech.html