THREAD

The one glimmer of hope is that the new PM will be an ambassador. He will probably understand that, more than anything else, financial support for Lebanon hinges on diplomacy. 1/n

Today, the country is most isolated than most: its leaders are not received in foreign capitals and (other than Macron), no foreign leaders visit. In particular, most foreign officials' visits are driven by security concerns. 2/n

For Lebanon, the way to an IMF deal goes through overcoming a U.S. veto, which is today the U.S.'s default position. That will entail the weaving together an international coalition of mostly European and Arab states capable of leaning on Washington. 3/n

That requires a reset of Lebanon's diplomacy, shifting from a mindset of Lebanese embassies acting as agents for Hezbollah's ability to operate in their host's countries to a charm offensive geared at building that coalition. 4/n

One diplomatic comparable advantage Lebanon has is the "small country charm", the diplomatic approach used by the countries ranging from Singapore to Ireland and highlighting how their relative insignificance makes them good partners. 5/n

Switching to "small country charm" will require domestic political changes because one building block of the strategy is the proposition that, because of their size, they cannot harm anybody. 6/n

The other main building block stresses how much the small country can do for its partners; i.e., how it can punch above its weight in a *positive* way. Here, there's much Lebanon can dangle, from culture to technology. 7/n

The above, blended into a, less serious, more flirtatious, whole can achieve the desired result of securing international financial support for Lebanon. 8/8.