Per @FFCalculator these are the top 24 WR's being drafted in seasonal leagues...

Some of these ADP's are absurd.

Amari Cooper is going as WR10

Michael Gallup is going as WR31.

2019 PPG:

Amari - 15.4

Gallup - 15.2

Target Share:

Amari - 20.7%
Gallup - 21.7%

They should be a helluva lot closer.

A few deeper thoughts on the Cowboys WR duo. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1250243220937695232?s=20

A few thoughts after they added CeeDee Lamb (the best WR in the draft). https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1253777218666328064?s=20

Amari is a fade in all formats given his price.

Gallup is a buy in all formats given his price.

Next up is Calvin Ridley. WR10?! really?! I would give it a near 0% chance he finishes as the WR10 this season and if he does it will be AS the WR10 with no ceiling to gain here.

Julio Jones is going to CRUSH this year. Calvin Ridley will have a nice WR2 season.

I think its more likely that Julio reverts to his prior 28% plus target share than Ridley jumps 6 or 7 percentage points.

Given Ridley only had a 17.70% target share last season, his second in the NFL. He is 25.7 years old right now. Its not like he is still developing physically or mentally.

It is more likely than not that Ridley is a 20% target share guy at best. Kind of like Amari Cooper.

I get that they have a bunch of "vacated targets" but they dont just ALL go to Ridley.

Julio will see slight bump. Hurst will take some, Gage will take some. They are still going to have the same number of players on the field.

This was always the case against Ridley. He's a nice player, but he is an NFL WR2.

Ridley is the only one playing with a true alpha. But that alpha is STILL there.

This is how I think this is what im projecting for the Falcons.

There is a slight chance that Ridley gets to WR10, but he is extremely unlikely to fall into a true difference making season so long as Julio is there.

I dont see much difference between a Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley projection.

#shamelesschristiankirkplug

#draftchristiankirk

I LOVE AJ Brown. But this redraft ADP is pure make-believe. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1118565896044392448?s=20

Tennessee was dead last in pass attempts last season with 26.9 per game.

2018 - 31st @ 27.3
2017 - 28th @ 31.3
2016 - 28th @ 31.5

Avg - 29.25 * 16 = 468 attempts.

This is a franchise that does not want to pass the ball.

AJB had a 19.5% target share. What should we expect?

Here are some target totals in different ranges:

468 * 22% = 103
468 * 25% = 117
468 * 30% = 140

Here is the target share leaders in 2019.

Ill let you decide where you think AJB fits in, but I am not betting on him being in the MT, Hopkins, Adams range.

Feel free to cut and paste this exact same argument for DK Metcalf except he shares the field with a VERY good Tyler Lockett.

And then we get to Odell Beckham Junior.

Its like people have completely forgotten that he was on pace to be the best fantasy WR maybe ever.

You guys know that he played through a sports hernia last year right?

Do you really think that THIS guy forgot that he was good at football?

Or do you think that a train wreck season schematically from an incompetent coaching staff while playing through a sports hernia is the more likely culprit?

Pretty much no matter what your scoring settings are, WR2 seasons dont really matter.

You need to be chasing WR1 upside and OBJ has it in spades. He is going to make a lot of very smart people look very foolish this year.

So... You may not realize this but DJ Moore has one of the most impressive prospect profiles we've ever seen.

He then impressed as a rookie.

He then finished as a fringe WR1 while suffering through one of the WORST quarterbacking seasons I can remember courtesy of Kyle Allen

He was WR14 while scoring FOUR?!? touchdowns last season.

He now gets a dink and dunk expert in Teddy B that excels in putting the ball in place to let his receivers rack up the YAC.

This is match made in heaven and if there is a true future superstar in the midst my money is this guy.

and then we get to TY Hilton.

TY Hilton.

TY HILTON!

This guy has been a stud pretty much every single year he has had competent QB play.

After his rookie season his average finish, with a real QB, has been WR14.

This years version of the Colts has a QB that has passed for over 4,000 yards in 11 of the past 12 seasons including a whopping 4,615 in 2019.

Welcome to the squad Phillip Rivers.

It also features:

Bust profile and bust rookie season Parris Campbell.

Rookie with a maybe profile in Michael Pittman

and a couple of already injured Tight Ends in Jack Doyle and Trey Burton.

This could be a year in which TY Hilton approaches a high 20% target share.

He has one season of 27.10% and had 24.60% last season.

I have him projected for 27.5% right now.

Do you know who has been on the receiving end of:

27.7%
29.2%
26.0% of Phillip Rivers passes the past three years?

Keenan Allen.

Keenan's finishes the past 3 years are:

WR4
WR15
WR8

You can go ahead and pencil TY Hilton in for that type of season.

These are the kinds of things that factor into my dynasty rankings on Patreon.

In dynasty you should be trying to win every year and there are several guys on this list that are being tragically undervalued in dynasty https://www.patreon.com/DFBeanCounter