Okay a quick tour through the age-old story: why are betting markets dumb?

1) yes, they're dumb
2) markets are only as smart as the traders participating
3) you guessed it, a lot of traders are dumb
4) 90% of bettors simply bet their hearts
5) 95% of bettors are male
(cont) https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1300210069469122561

6) there is more MAGA money than Dem money, and this explains the constant offset between real odds and prices (in my view, the MAGA money disagrees!)

7) why the MAGA shift now? Two factors: anticipated convention bump and perception that social unrest will benefit Trump.

8) but why, you ask, would people bet on unproven hypotheses like those? Some of it is because they're dumb. Some of it is because they will believe it until shown otherwise. And some of it is because...

9) people like me who are betting on others being dumb (momentum plays).

10) that's right, I'm part of the problem and own a lot of Trump right now, making me dumb (or smart when I sell my bags to some other sucker, which is likely).

11) all that said, there's considerable resistance at 50/50, and tweets mocking the odds reinforces that.

12) so to sum up, I *do* think we can hit Trump 50+, but not without live-caller polls showing bigly tightening. If those don't materialize the MAGA drift will stall/reverse.

13) if you think markets are dumb, come try making money from them: https://www.predictit.org/