I’ve seen a couple of threads on competitive authoritarianism these last few days & I want, in a regular language, to flesh out what it really means without citing the lit. (apologies in advance to Steve & Lucan, Gandhi, Schedler, Przeworski, @AnnaGBusse, Geddes...) Thread

1-So what are we talking about when we say competitive authoritarian state? Simply put: it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, even flies like a duck BUT it is *not* a duck. It is a state that has all the trappings of democracy without democracy. It has political parties,

3-an opposition, civil society organizations, courts, judicial system, media, and elections. On the surface, it looks like a democracy. In some countries, the opposition can even win elections. But once you scratch that thin layer of veneer, what you find is authoritarianism

4-Yes, there are courts with judges, lawyers & prosecutors, and in 80% of the cases, disputes btw citizens are resolved normally. But what’s important in the 20% left is that the leaders of the state, their families/friends & state institutions are above justice & the law.

5-Brave lawyers or prosecutors can put up a fight, they might even find a sympathetic incorrupt judge, but those brave lawyers, judges, etc get crushed. Their career & livelihood threatened. Same treatment extends to their friends & family. How many judges/lawyers are willing

6-to fight & defy the state? Believe me, not many at all. Soon, the entire judicial system falls silent—that same system that on paper/constitution is still independent, but w/o meaningful independence really. And little by little, the courts become a rubber stamp for the ruler.

7-and the ruler would use the judicial system to go after his opponents. The trials would look just fine on the surface, but the verdicts are a foregone conclusion.

Yes, you find journalists, reporters, & media organizations in authoritarian regimes. No, they don’t all look

8-like a North Korea state media at all. Have you ever watched Egyptian, Turkish, Russian etc news channels? They look slick, sharp, & well staffed with journalists & reporters covering almost every topic that is not a threat to the ruler or the regime. Some journalists are even

9-allowed to write articles critical of the regime, exposing some corruption (looking at you Turkish & Egyptian journalists), which give the ruler the opportunity to look concerned, even mad about the corruption that is going on in the country, & promises to clean it up.

10-However, real independent investigative journalism is absent. And the journalists who dare to investigate are crushed. The media organizations/newspapers that dare to publish serious pieces are dismantled. Suddenly, their advertisement budgets dwindle. Those newspapers

11-struggle financially, then close. Or in some cases, an oligarch close to the regime buys that news channel/newspaper & turns it into a pro-ruler/regime platform.

How many journalists would dare to pick a fight or defy the ruler/regime? Believe me, not many at all.

12-Most journalists will stop writing, some becomes novelists or teachers. Other will calculate the cost & benefit to themselves & their families of sticking to their guns & continue fighting. That calculus is easy: I got a wife & kids, I’m not going to put them into jeopardy.

13-Very few will defy the ruler/regime. So few that we almost all know their names & can count them on 1 hand.

The opposition, you said? Well, that’s the easy one. Once you control the courts & the media, crushing the opposition is the easiest thing to do.

14-In some competitive authoritarian states, the ruler create opposition parties. These parties have offices, platforms, proposals, candidates, enter elections, & even win seats in the parliament (looking at you Hungary, Algeria, Russia, etc). And once in the Parliament, their

15-representatives debate & sponsor bills, make speeches, and even vote against the ruler’s party on the most mundane pieces legislation. But on the most important ones, they support the ruler’s party using patriotism, national unity, domestic/foreign enemies as a justification.

16-How about the business class, you ask? Wouldn’t the capitalist class stand in opposition to the ruler? No. Most will rally around the ruler looking for favors, deregulation, & lenient fiscal policy, which the ruler, of course, will extend gladly.

And more importantly, once

17-you control the courts, the media, the opposition, and the parliament, you control the business class.

So, a citizen in a competitive authoritarian state looks around & sees the courts are open, the media is slick & pumping programs, the opposition is represented, the

18-parliament is churning out laws, & the business class is happy. Yet that same citizen cannot get a fair trial if he opposes the state, cannot believe what he reads in the paper, is not represented by the opposition, & cannot benefit from what the business class is creating

19-Now that i fleshed out what competitive authoritarianism is, you may ask, can this be in our future under Trump?

The answer is a categorical yes!

He packed the federal court system with the help of McConnell. RBG won’t last long, he’ll replace her with a Trumpian judge.

20-he already has total & absolute control of the GOP. He has 2 news channels, & several online newspapers at his disposal. If he wins, using the 2020 census, he will gerrymander the hell out the congressional districts guaranteeing himself a majority in the House & the Senate.

21-who will oppose him when he does that? The NYTimes? The WaPost? CNN? No one. NYT & CNN journalists will cower & start self-censuring themselves out of fear & a pure desire of survival.

The WaPost would fold. Bezos will strike a truce with Trump bc he has too much to lose.

22-The military? 4 more years, Trump will replace the top brass, find a bunch colonels (believe me, there are a bunch of them out there) who believe in his white nationalist agenda.

So, with the courts, the media, the business class & the military in his pocket, Trump controls

23-every aspect of the American federal government & civil society.

The people will rise up, you say? No, they won’t. We aren’t more courageous than the Egyptians or Turks or Algerians or Belarusians. Most will go about their daily lives trying to avoid trouble.

24-Of course, those who dare will be quickly dealt with.

This is what we are facing. It is not science fiction. It is more real and realizable in the very near future than you can imagine.

How can we stop this from taking place? Vote! Vote because your life depends on it.

. @vasabjit_b & @NathanKalmoe, here is a very dark thread... feel free to add to it.