Read on Twitter
1/2 When the "pussy tape" leaked, I wasn't too worried. I went to a rally in Wilkes-Barre soon after and I knew Trump was going to win PA; the return to baseline was underway, normal Blue Collar Dem types there were gleefully rationalizing Trump's behavior. I put money on 2016.
2/2 If the riot violence doesn't end and the UMC Whites perceive their enduring covid fragility being exacerbated by BLM/Antifa behaving badly with license from Dems, their vote will decide the election even with lower WCW turnout:
play with the sliders https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
play with the sliders https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
When I say play with the sliders, understand what @Redistrict built (you can extract the JSON blob, load it up into a database and correct it with 2020 Census Data way too late for the next election): this is a future calculator - axes for demographic turnout & voter affiliation
A pathological case; the entire eligible voting population of each demographic bucket votes one way, 100% turnout.
You can then, one at a time, flip different demographics affiliation to see in which EC states their vote matters and to what extent.
Spoiler alert: it's Whites.
You can then, one at a time, flip different demographics affiliation to see in which EC states their vote matters and to what extent.
Spoiler alert: it's Whites.
Specifically, the reason Men and Woman and College Socialized vs non-College Socialized Whites (I hate to say 'educated') must be broken out in different brackets is because those cohorts' behavior is hugely different, and Whites are populous. Unnecessary for the other groups.
Trump won with the @Steve_Sailer strategy; you can generate the 2016 map by fidgeting with the sliders to reflect Trump losing a bit of Romney's white vote, but gaining inroads among non college educated whites (with marginal gains among blacks & latinos).
So he'd lose in 2020:
So he'd lose in 2020:
1) he didn't do shit for them/went against promises
2) these voters were often indies/Democrats in places it counted, in the States & counties he flipped from Obama
3)Trump has gone from being embarrassing to a moral anchor for evil/stupidity within the white upper middle class
2) these voters were often indies/Democrats in places it counted, in the States & counties he flipped from Obama
3)Trump has gone from being embarrassing to a moral anchor for evil/stupidity within the white upper middle class
4) 2018 showed us exactly what kind of mobilization was possible against the GOP by the Coalition of the Fringes (another @Steve_Sailer -ism); whose Iron Spine is the college educated white woman. And if single? Good chance she actually works for progressive causes outright!
The thing about those AWFL women though, is that they love 'Target'. They love Williams-Sonoma more, but, you know, @Peter_Turchin 's thesis about elite overproduction is right, and there are only so many lucrative office sinecures to go around, and student debts have to be paid.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/06/the-birth-of-a-new-american-aristocracy/559130/
This upper 10 % of America, the new 'Upper Middle Class', the PMCs, the Managerial Elite, Bill Bishop's "Big Sort" or @charlesmurray 's Violators of Fishtown, actually really like creature comforts and 'public safety'. They don't care for /riots/ at all.
This upper 10 % of America, the new 'Upper Middle Class', the PMCs, the Managerial Elite, Bill Bishop's "Big Sort" or @charlesmurray 's Violators of Fishtown, actually really like creature comforts and 'public safety'. They don't care for /riots/ at all.
So what does @PollsAndVotes 's polling suggest? What does going from +22 to -5 mean wrt. White opinion #BlackLivesMatter 
, Antifa, and the riots mean?
https://rpubs.com/PollsAndVotes/652966
It means a lot of those who now think ill of the protests are in @Redistrict 's 2nd slider in the tool.
, Antifa, and the riots mean?https://rpubs.com/PollsAndVotes/652966
It means a lot of those who now think ill of the protests are in @Redistrict 's 2nd slider in the tool.
Here's @Redistrict 's Nightmare Map (different initial conditions than the 2012 affiliation and turnout):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/?ex_cid=story-twitter#NCEW:0.704;0.619,CEW:0.373;0.752,Black:0.088;0.566,Latino:0.287;0.522,A/O:0.226;0.558,3:0.017
Trump loses pop vote by ~5 million Dems flip MI/PA
BUT Trump clinches AZ, FL, NC & **WI** and wins reelection by 1 electoral vote.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/?ex_cid=story-twitter#NCEW:0.704;0.619,CEW:0.373;0.752,Black:0.088;0.566,Latino:0.287;0.522,A/O:0.226;0.558,3:0.017
Trump loses pop vote by ~5 million Dems flip MI/PA
BUT Trump clinches AZ, FL, NC & **WI** and wins reelection by 1 electoral vote.
