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The more that happens with COVID, riots, unrest, China, etc, the more this book is critical to read and understand...
A thread of some thoughts I had reading it: https://twitter.com/Evanish/status/1299124871025360896
A thread of some thoughts I had reading it: https://twitter.com/Evanish/status/1299124871025360896
1/ One of my favorite things about a great book is how it can reshape you're thinking.
This book significantly changed my mental model for how to interpret history.
It's also Lindy; written in 1997, he's accurately predicted the last 23 years with about 80% accuracy IMHO.
This book significantly changed my mental model for how to interpret history.
It's also Lindy; written in 1997, he's accurately predicted the last 23 years with about 80% accuracy IMHO.
2/ Previously, I thought history was a line; there would be ups and downs but it would basically march straight forward.
As the Fourth Turning explains, it's actually a series of 80-100 year cycles broken into 4 distinct eras:
Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis, and High:
As the Fourth Turning explains, it's actually a series of 80-100 year cycles broken into 4 distinct eras:
Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis, and High:
3/ Explaining those eras:
1) Crisis: In a crisis, everything is on the line. Society faces a brutal challenge including Total War:
Revolutionary War (1775)
Civil War (1861) - 86 yrs after previous
WW II (1941) - 80 yrs
2020 - 79 yrs
I
when I saw the years lined up
1) Crisis: In a crisis, everything is on the line. Society faces a brutal challenge including Total War:
Revolutionary War (1775)
Civil War (1861) - 86 yrs after previous
WW II (1941) - 80 yrs
2020 - 79 yrs
I
when I saw the years lined up
4/ Explaining eras:
2) High: After overcoming the crisis, we experience a high. Society is filled with optimism. Hardened leaders from the Crisis are ready to rebuild & build new amazing things.
Think about what happened 1945-1965. Tons of optimism. The Baby Boom.
2) High: After overcoming the crisis, we experience a high. Society is filled with optimism. Hardened leaders from the Crisis are ready to rebuild & build new amazing things.
Think about what happened 1945-1965. Tons of optimism. The Baby Boom.
5/ Explaining eras
3) The Awakening: In this era, we turn inward again. The conformism of the high and optimism starts to get replaced by a focus on the individual.
Think about how the 70s were filled with hippies, a new rise of feminism, and experimentation with drugs.
3) The Awakening: In this era, we turn inward again. The conformism of the high and optimism starts to get replaced by a focus on the individual.
Think about how the 70s were filled with hippies, a new rise of feminism, and experimentation with drugs.
6/ Explaining eras
4) The Unraveling: As things continue, the institutions that were so trusted to win in the Crisis, and lead in the High now become corrupted. People lose faith in them, and the focus on the individual goes too far.
Most recently, the Unraveling was 1985-2008
4) The Unraveling: As things continue, the institutions that were so trusted to win in the Crisis, and lead in the High now become corrupted. People lose faith in them, and the focus on the individual goes too far.
Most recently, the Unraveling was 1985-2008
7/ Explaining eras
The Unraveling transitions to a Crisis era when we start a transition to an ultimate climax of Total War.
Based on the book, I think the 2008 crash was that tipping point. Add in the culture war, plus rising tension with China and you have our era's Crisis.
The Unraveling transitions to a Crisis era when we start a transition to an ultimate climax of Total War.
Based on the book, I think the 2008 crash was that tipping point. Add in the culture war, plus rising tension with China and you have our era's Crisis.
Taking a break to go read outside.
If this gets some likes and Retweets, I'll continue with more on how this applies to today, and my predictions for the future based on it.
If this gets some likes and Retweets, I'll continue with more on how this applies to today, and my predictions for the future based on it.
8/ The Fourth Turning answered a lot of questions I had about America:
1) Why did we make so much progress going to the moon + space, then just stop?
- Going to the moon is a societal goal that fits the High era. When the shift goes to the Awakening, it's no longer a priority
1) Why did we make so much progress going to the moon + space, then just stop?
- Going to the moon is a societal goal that fits the High era. When the shift goes to the Awakening, it's no longer a priority
2) How does the mental model work if this common phrase is true? Fits perfectly:
Hard times (Crisis) create strong men.
Strong men create good times (High).
Good times create weak men (Unraveling)
Weak men create hard times (next Crisis)
Hard times (Crisis) create strong men.
Strong men create good times (High).
Good times create weak men (Unraveling)
Weak men create hard times (next Crisis)
3) Why is each generation so different?
Again, the non-linearity of the world was a puzzle to me. As an older Millennial, I was puzzled why I couldn't relate to people and pop culture for Gen X. Ferris Bueller, Bill & Ted, etc always failed to resonate with me at all.
Again, the non-linearity of the world was a puzzle to me. As an older Millennial, I was puzzled why I couldn't relate to people and pop culture for Gen X. Ferris Bueller, Bill & Ted, etc always failed to resonate with me at all.
3 cntd) As it turns out, what cycle (Turning) you grow up in directly impacts who you are, what you value, and what your generation accomplishes.
