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A big mega-thread of why I think current trends will result in Trump winning by a landslide.
Note the weasel words "current trends". Stuff could change. Stuff could always change.
But right now the change is in the direction of Trump gaining voters.
Note the weasel words "current trends". Stuff could change. Stuff could always change.
But right now the change is in the direction of Trump gaining voters.
This is, in some ways, a response to this mini-thread by my friend @physicsgeek, whom I enjoyed speaking with last night. But I didn't want to do a monologue for a half hour on these reasons, because that's what tweetstorms are for. https://twitter.com/physicsgeek/status/1300153713072447488
Starting point:
Here's the baseline. If the past 4 years changed no one's minds, if we just entrenched where we were and shouted at each other, and the cycle of "liberal while young, more conservative as you age" just balancing out as normal, then if nothing changes, Trump wins.
Here's the baseline. If the past 4 years changed no one's minds, if we just entrenched where we were and shouted at each other, and the cycle of "liberal while young, more conservative as you age" just balancing out as normal, then if nothing changes, Trump wins.
When the economy is good, the incumbent wins. The economy was GREAT last January, and Trump was cruising to a victory. The Wuhan Virus came along, Dems (and some GOP) states overreacted, and we suffered a contraction. But we've added millions of jobs back, the stock market's up
And with cases way down and deaths WAY down and everyone ignoring mask rules, I think we'll unlock soon. September and October is plenty of time for the economy to come roaring back.
The economy doesn't have to BE good, people just have to have confidence it WILL improve.
The economy doesn't have to BE good, people just have to have confidence it WILL improve.
So point #2 is Trump wins.
Point 3:
In times of chaos, the Law and Order candidate wins. Dems have spent 3 months praising the rioters and downplaying the violence.
Everywhere Trump sends troops, the place pacifies. Trump denounced all the rioting in stark terms.
With all the rioting, Trump wins voters.
In times of chaos, the Law and Order candidate wins. Dems have spent 3 months praising the rioters and downplaying the violence.
Everywhere Trump sends troops, the place pacifies. Trump denounced all the rioting in stark terms.
With all the rioting, Trump wins voters.
Point 4:
What new things do the Democrats have to throw at Trump? Nothing.
They actually have *less* than before.
The past accusations of sexual assault never became credible. Corruption never got traction. Crassness, stupidity, and ego were all already accepted and ignored.
What new things do the Democrats have to throw at Trump? Nothing.
They actually have *less* than before.
The past accusations of sexual assault never became credible. Corruption never got traction. Crassness, stupidity, and ego were all already accepted and ignored.
Point 5: new excitement can create enthusiasm which gets the vote out for your side.
Obama got people to vote that had never voted, or hadn't voted in years.
No one is excited about Biden, even less so with his mental decline. Kamala Harris alienated everyone. <2%.
Obama got people to vote that had never voted, or hadn't voted in years.
No one is excited about Biden, even less so with his mental decline. Kamala Harris alienated everyone. <2%.
They chose Biden because Democrats have no bench and there was no one else. Joe was the big, goofy, lovable uncle, and he's the closest tie they have to Obama. Dems were "happy" with Obama, maybe they'd vote for Joe now?
None of the other candidates could catch on. They all had significant flaws, except maybe Tulsi Gabbard. I still don't know why they cut her off at the knees, because she would have been formidable, but I guess she wasn't progressive enough for Antifa, BLM, or the Bernie Bros.
So with no one else catching on, and Bernie Sanders being the only candidate with any enthusiastic supporters at all, they fixed the primary for Biden.
If Biden had been the lovable goof of even just 8 years ago, they could have gone on the attack.
But they can't trust his brain.
If Biden had been the lovable goof of even just 8 years ago, they could have gone on the attack.
But they can't trust his brain.
Kamala Harris was added to be the combo of the best of Hillary and Obama: black progressive woman: able to propose extremely Socialist policies the GOP can't fight against because it would automatically be sexist *and* racist.
But she can't go on the attack, either. She's a genuinely unlikeable woman who can't win people over. Notice how she just keeps repeating her assertions, as if repetition can substitute for an explanation. https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1299013980711784448
Her political skills are a liability. "I'm fucking moving to Iowa" didn't endear her to anyone, and then ended up with less than 2% support: https://twitter.com/flywithkamala/status/1174688557123940356
Point 6: Joe Biden can't debate. He'll be exposed as weak, confused, and inflexible.
But if he doesn't debate, he'll look like a coward. Either path loses enthusiasm for him, which means he loses votes.
Even *with* the wink-wink-nudge-nudge Kamala Harris bait-n-switch for POTUS.
But if he doesn't debate, he'll look like a coward. Either path loses enthusiasm for him, which means he loses votes.
Even *with* the wink-wink-nudge-nudge Kamala Harris bait-n-switch for POTUS.
Point 7:
DNC vs RNC. I know, few people watched both. But enough people watched both to see the difference in tone & content. Even if it's just the pundits and journalists who watched both, they saw the RNC was much more upbeat and excited. They will telegraph despair to voters.
DNC vs RNC. I know, few people watched both. But enough people watched both to see the difference in tone & content. Even if it's just the pundits and journalists who watched both, they saw the RNC was much more upbeat and excited. They will telegraph despair to voters.
Point 8:
I hear people claim there are hundreds of thousands who were willing to vote for Trump in 2016, but have since been turned off by the chaos, by his manner, and by his actions as POTUS.
I cannot see this.
Trump did nothing differently AFTER he was elected than before.
I hear people claim there are hundreds of thousands who were willing to vote for Trump in 2016, but have since been turned off by the chaos, by his manner, and by his actions as POTUS.
I cannot see this.
Trump did nothing differently AFTER he was elected than before.
In contrast, we've had Blexit. We've had revelations about McMuffin. Every time I mention people who refused to vote for Trump and are now broken-glass Trump voters, 2-3 more people pop up and say "it me".
Trump supported HBSCU, pardoned several black legends, sentencing reform, Kanye partnered with him. Lots of people don't care, but just scroll through twitter and you'll see dozens of new black conservatives and new black Trump supporters citing these things.
The shift of black voters from Dem to Trump is not going to be huge, but it's going to be significant. Word is getting out, and word is getting around.
Back to the mythical "I voted for Trump but he turned me off" voter. I know there are some. There are some who think the indictments & convictions since Trump took office are indications of corruption. There are some who blame Trump for sex assault accusations against Kavanaugh
But almost every time someone pops and claims to be that former Trump supporter, it turns out to be a false flag.
It doesn't mean they *all* are.
But put it all together, and there are many more people convinced by tax cuts & deregulation and judge nominations than turned off.
It doesn't mean they *all* are.
But put it all together, and there are many more people convinced by tax cuts & deregulation and judge nominations than turned off.
Point 9:
Boy, does Trump have material for campaign ads.
Democrats have been shooting themselves in the foot with claims that the riots are mostly peaceful, with double standards in how they treated George Floyd's death vs David Dorn's.
Boy, does Trump have material for campaign ads.
Democrats have been shooting themselves in the foot with claims that the riots are mostly peaceful, with double standards in how they treated George Floyd's death vs David Dorn's.
The Wuhan Virus hypocrisy gives much more fodder.
We haven't even hit September yet. The best ads are going to come out in late September and early October.
We haven't even hit September yet. The best ads are going to come out in late September and early October.
And the choice will be made clear between the party that says that everything sucks and America sucks and we're going to tear it all down and change it
vs
the party that says that America is great and we're just going to make it better.
vs
the party that says that America is great and we're just going to make it better.
Trump will run campaigns that say:
We locked almost the entire country down out of fear of a virus. Even if we hadn't locked down, the other nations locking down would have hurt out economy.
But we are such a great nation, we survived it, and everyone is getting back to work!
We locked almost the entire country down out of fear of a virus. Even if we hadn't locked down, the other nations locking down would have hurt out economy.
But we are such a great nation, we survived it, and everyone is getting back to work!
What can Democrats say that won't sound like they wish things had turned out worse?
They will try to blame him for every death.
But I think people are smarter than that.
No other nation is blaming their top leader for every death in their nation.
It was a pandemic.
They will try to blame him for every death.
But I think people are smarter than that.
No other nation is blaming their top leader for every death in their nation.
It was a pandemic.
The fact that they are demanding we wear face masks and stay at home and work at home all contribute to the idea that this virus is VERY dangerous...if the virus is very dangerous, then people won't believe it was Trump's fault.
The lockdowns and masks and lifestyle changes Democrats demand undermine their own argument that this is all Trump's fault.
Point 10: Trump won because Hillary Clinton didn't go to Wisconsin.
True or not, she didn't go there, Trump barely won, and it made a difference in the final electoral votes.
Well, I can tell you Biden is going to skip a lot more states than just Wisconsin.
True or not, she didn't go there, Trump barely won, and it made a difference in the final electoral votes.
Well, I can tell you Biden is going to skip a lot more states than just Wisconsin.
Point 11: Very under-reported is Trump's increasing strength with legal Hispanic citizen voters and legal resident family members.
Point 12:
Rats desert sinking ships: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/six-democrat-mayors-in-minnesota-endorse-trump-for-reelection/ar-BB18vpoF
Rats desert sinking ships: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/six-democrat-mayors-in-minnesota-endorse-trump-for-reelection/ar-BB18vpoF
Point 13:
Trump got a bounce from the *DNC* convention
Trump got a bounce from the *DNC* convention
Point 14:
Trump popped up to 52% approval. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-pops-to-52-best-job-approval-rating-on-record-up-with-blacks-even-democrats
Trump popped up to 52% approval. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/trump-pops-to-52-best-job-approval-rating-on-record-up-with-blacks-even-democrats
Point 15:
Reagan won 49 states.
if you watched the RNC convention (I didn't, I just watched selected speeches, including Trumps'), you saw "Morning in America II".
Optimism sells.
Especially when there is reason for it.
Despite Leftist gaslighting, there is optimism in the US.
Reagan won 49 states.
if you watched the RNC convention (I didn't, I just watched selected speeches, including Trumps'), you saw "Morning in America II".
Optimism sells.
Especially when there is reason for it.
Despite Leftist gaslighting, there is optimism in the US.
Put all these things together, I see Trump competitive in *blue* states, and winning all the battleground states.
There's still miles to go, so who knows for sure?
But I think the riots have triggered a preference cascade.
There's still miles to go, so who knows for sure?
But I think the riots have triggered a preference cascade.
I think the increasing lies about the violence and riots, the increasing dishonest tactics by Democrats to try to revive Russian Collusion, the push to expand opportunity for vote fraud...I think lots of conservatives who never vote, will.
I think even in places like California, where the GOP don't vote because they've been almost completely frozen out, people will vote just to protest.
I think a bunch of Democrat governors in extremely safe blue states are going to be defeated in stunning reversals.
I've even heard someone claim that upstate NY and NYC have been more balanced than people realize, only slightly tilted toward Democrats over the years, but consistent, delivering Dems the EC votes every time.
But with NYC hollowed out, they say NY's EC votes are actually in play
But with NYC hollowed out, they say NY's EC votes are actually in play
So with all these things put together, I think Trump is going to win in a landslide.
This doesn't mean you can relax and not vote.
This means that no matter where you are, no matter how deep blue the location you live in, you need to go out and vote GOP.
Because you don't know how many other people have changed their minds with the rioting and Addled Joe Biden being the nominee.
And because even if Trump wins easily, we need to also make sure he wins the popular vote, too.
Sure, the popular vote doesn't matter, the EC is all that does, that's the rules.
But we need to take away ANY excuse to delegitimize Trump going forward.
Sure, the popular vote doesn't matter, the EC is all that does, that's the rules.
But we need to take away ANY excuse to delegitimize Trump going forward.
We need to swamp Democrats by millions of votes nationwide.
I think it will happen, but it won't happen with complacency.
it only happens if you vote. Even if you think you don't matter, you do.
Make your voice known.
it only happens if you vote. Even if you think you don't matter, you do.
Make your voice known.
Make them waste one of their fraudulent votes canceling yours. Don't give your vote to them for free and let them cancel ANOTHER vote.
Fuck 'em by voting.
Fuck 'em by voting.
finis
