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So here’s my 2020 Electoral College prediction & my reasoning behind it.
The South & the Midwest (except for Chicago-heavy IL) will stay red. In NC, that state’s substantial Arab vote is demoralized by Iraq War Cheerleader Joe & their abstention will be just enough to keep it red. https://www.npr.org/2020/08/21/903993387/in-n-c-young-voters-of-color-uninspired-by-biden-see-defeating-trump-as-essentia
TX & GA have the same issues with demoralized Latinos & young black voters. As Muhammad Ali once said, “The trouble with Atlanta is that it’s surrounded by Georgia.”
In MI & WI, the loss of good jobs b/c of Dems’ support of NAFTA & TPP will still rule the day. And, in MI, you have the added demoralized Arab vote, as with NC.
I’m a bit iffy on NM & NV because Biden is simply not appealing to the Latino vote, but, for now, I think Biden will eke out wins in those states.
FL is another conundrum for me, but I’m keeping it red because of the same demoralized Latino vote vs. the very enthusiastic old, white Trump vote. Enthusiasm gaps are real, folks.
And it’s the Enthusiasm Gap that has me running counter to polls in some of the swing states. If it’s rainy or COVID is still rampant, many less-than-enthusiastic Biden voters will stay home no matter what they said in a poll.
We’re also seeing movement to Trump since the conventions. Biden’s decision to pick Harris not only made no sense strategically since she brings NOTHING to the table, it may end up being more of a detriment than wash.
Hell, Biden has dropped in most state & national polling since choosing Harris. The Dem Party really thinks she’s an asset, but voters do not. https://iotwreport.com/cnn-poll-shows-biden-lost-black-and-hispanic-support-after-harris-pick/
Young voters, progressives & workers can’t stand Harris because she’s pro-cop, pro-prison-labor & failed to prosecute Mnuchin when he screwed over homeowners in CA. The funny “Barack/Joe Bromance” memes won’t be enough to woo these groups.
Biden already had the over-50 black voters & California in the bag. What he needed to do with his VP pick is appeal to younger POC & to progressives in swing states. Harris does neither.
I really don’t get the Democrats’ problems understanding math. Instead of appealing to the more than 26 million progressives who voted in 2016, they’re going after the 3.1 million of #NeverTrump Republicans in 2020.
26 million > 3.1 million. Duh.
26 million > 3.1 million. Duh.
Turning off progressives, young people & the working class by feting right-wing war criminals at the convention & platforming milquetoast incrementalism policies during a pandemic, rampant income inequality & climate crisis is just stupid.
If Biden loses just 11% of the 40% of progressives who voted in 2016, he will lose the popular vote, as well as the Electoral College. The average number of primary voters who don’t vote for the party’s nominee is about 15-20%, depending on which source you use.
I know there are still VBNMW idiots out there who think Bernie cost HRC the election, but based on average primary-to-general vote spoilage rates, Bernie was actually able to provide HRC with a higher-than-average conversion rate.
HRC, on the other hand, provided Obama with a lower-than-average conversion rate with 25 percent of her primary voters defecting to McCain in 2008.
Therefore, if Biden manages to run off only 2.9 million progressives in swing states because he’s pandering to 3.1 million #NeverTrump Republicans, he will lose.
Polling indicates 20% of Bernie primary voters wont vote Biden (which is average). Since some states don’t even release the raw vote total (candidates are awarded delegates in primaries, not votes), it’s hard to figure out the exact number, but it’s more than 2.9 million votes.
If Biden loses to Trump, we progressives NEED to shout out loud that the party’s pension for choosing center-right neoliberals is what is costing their presidential nominees wins.
We CANNOT let the party get away with blaming Russia this time. Russia didn’t cost HRC the election, either, but Dem elites can’t admit this because what they need to do (i.e. offer populist progressive policy) will cost them their wealthy donor base. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1432753/Trump-tweets-NSA-FBI-say-Russia-did-not-influence-election.html
This year, Dem elites & their propagandists in corp media will try to convince non-critical-thinking partisans that Biden lost because of Russia again (they’ve already started), but we’ll have two election cycles w/ GOP Lite candidates to prove them wrong. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/08/23/mollie_hemingway_less_enthusiasm_for_biden_than_for_romney_or_clinton.html
Eventually, even the party will have to provide a platform for populist progressive policies or die. Most young voters, who could be the future of the party if properly courted with policy, need something to vote FOR & not just vague “GOP bad” rhetoric. https://www.teenvogue.com/story/how-will-gen-z-vote#:~:text=But%20in%20the%20decade%20since%202008%2C%20younger%20voters,adapted%20a%20worldview%20that%20embraces%20more%20diverse%20viewpoints.
The Dems simply cannot continue to exist if they don’t replace diminishing Boomer voters with future generations. Two right-wing major parties is unsustainable & it’s insane for the Dem Party to continue on the path of “lesser evilism.”
All this said, I may update my prediction as we get closer to Nov. 3, but for now, this the landscape as I see it.
