Thread: The Precautionary Principle

In order to minimize risk when information is insufficient, assume a higher negative impact outcome, especially when the stakes are high.

The resulting decisions could prevent or minimize a potentially major negative impact.

Examples:

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PP1. If you go camping and have heard of bears in the forest but have not seen any yourself, carry a gun and don't sleep outside your tent at night.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mit-climate-scientist-responds-on-disaster-costs-and-climate-change/

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PP2. If you suspect that the novel #coronavirus could be transmitted from human to human —a route that fits previous coronaviruses— assume h2h transmission until proven otherwise.

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PP3. If you have early evidence that the virus spreads with a base R_0 of ~2.6, which is twice as large as R_0 of the flu ~ 1.3, assume that the virus will become a pandemic and put all your efforts into containing its spread.

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PP4. If laboratory measurements, principles of physics, and probability theory all support airborne transmission but there is not enough epidemiological data yet, assume airborne transmission.

https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1240063943042875392?s=20

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PP5. If it is very difficult to explain super-spreading events without airborne transmission, assume airborne transmission.

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PP7. If it is unclear whether an effective #COVID vaccine could be developed, do everything possible to crush COVID cases to zero. At least until an effective vaccine becomes available.

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PP6. If it is unclear whether reinfection with the #coronavirus is possible —and if there is already anecdotal evidence for it— assume that reinfection is possible, unless proven otherwise.

(Note: this was supposed to appear before PP7 in this thread.)

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