P phoned L earlier today invited him to Moscow and demanded to "strengthen our common Union State" (as I understand as a sort of payment for backing him). A short thread, what that would mean and why this would be a strategic mistake. /2

To do so, L must win, at least for the time being. Looking to the streets of Minsk that will be possible only with a lot of repressions. Political legitimation left = zero. Only good economic performance would be able to counter this in th nearer future at least a bit. /3

Too, the clique around L has to be kept loyal as well. For P "strengthen the Union State" means to gain control. This would be possible only through handing over control of main state enterprises to his confidants (vulgo: his cronies). They will demand revenues. /4

Belarusian economy will become an appendix of Russian economy, which does not very well recently, with nor real projects for improvement. At the same time people in Belarus very well know, why they lost in the streets: Because of P. /5

Most likely still very positive attitude towards Russia in Belarus will deteriorate. Not in the same way and amplitude like in Ukraine, but structurally very similar. @DmitriTrenin recently wrote in a piece on the @CarnegieRussia website about .../6 https://carnegie.ru/2020/08/27/ru-pub-82588

the astonishing ability of the Kremlin to alienate particularly the countries closest to the Russian borders. By backing L now, P might get closer legal ties with Belarus and more control now. But this will be a time bomb to explode in a not so far future. /end