Read on Twitter
1)
On Being Right
On Being Right
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DYOR. CRYPTO IS VOLATILE. NOT SELLING TO AMERICANS. I HAVE CONFLICTS OF INTEREST.
etc.
etc.
3) I missed the boat on $YFI.
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1299979379590668288
I was like "man this is expensive and also I don't really get it".
The market was like LOL.
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1299979379590668288
I was like "man this is expensive and also I don't really get it".
The market was like LOL.
4) I guess I made two mistakes.
First: its yield provides value. This can be true whether or not you think the things _giving_ the yield in the first place do.
Second: @AndreCronjeTech is a baller.
First: its yield provides value. This can be true whether or not you think the things _giving_ the yield in the first place do.
Second: @AndreCronjeTech is a baller.
5) But really I made a third, bigger mistake.
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1299470262413324288
"Do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right"
$YFI bulls made money, no matter what else you say. $YFI went up, which means it had demand.
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1299470262413324288
"Do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right"
$YFI bulls made money, no matter what else you say. $YFI went up, which means it had demand.
6) But I think the tagline hides a more powerful truth.
Is it *really* making money vs being right?
Sometimes markets are silly. But also sometimes if you think the money-making direction was wrong, it's just because you don't realize why it's right.
Is it *really* making money vs being right?
Sometimes markets are silly. But also sometimes if you think the money-making direction was wrong, it's just because you don't realize why it's right.
7) I was wrong about $YFI in retrospect. But also when I saw what the community was saying, I should have taken that as a sign that maybe there was something I was missing.
I didn't want to make money, I wanted to be right. And in the end that led me to also being wrong.
I didn't want to make money, I wanted to be right. And in the end that led me to also being wrong.
8) There are some hills I'll die on; $CRO / $SXP ratio is wrong.
But I've gained a lot of respect for "stupid" methods.
During the early days of SRM some people were like "idk I don't see it". Others were like "idk I don't see it, but probably soon I will."
Soon everyone did.
But I've gained a lot of respect for "stupid" methods.
During the early days of SRM some people were like "idk I don't see it". Others were like "idk I don't see it, but probably soon I will."
Soon everyone did.
9) Anyway I thought about this today because I re-read one of @QWQiao's tweets: https://twitter.com/QWQiao/status/1299839516065304578
10) And like my first instinct was "yup"
That was _mine_.
And I think that even _I_ didn't get this one right. Not clearly, at least.
Ask yourself: in a month, do you think you will have made money if you followed that advice?
That was _mine_.
And I think that even _I_ didn't get this one right. Not clearly, at least.
Ask yourself: in a month, do you think you will have made money if you followed that advice?
11) And if you're not sure you would have, ask yourself what's really going on.
And here there are plausible theories!
But also the part of me that believes those theories is already wrong by a LOT over the last few weeks.
And here there are plausible theories!
But also the part of me that believes those theories is already wrong by a LOT over the last few weeks.
12) Do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right?
Wait. What does it *mean* to be right?
Wait. What does it *mean* to be right?
13) Why is BTC worth $250b or whatever, and TACO only $600k?
Because, many years ago, we all agreed that BTC was the real deal, and so it is.
Why did Google outperform Yahoo so much over the last decades? Because, as it turns out, it fucking delivered.
Because, many years ago, we all agreed that BTC was the real deal, and so it is.
Why did Google outperform Yahoo so much over the last decades? Because, as it turns out, it fucking delivered.
14) Sometimes the market is inefficient and there's a great trade. Sometimes when it looks like the market is inefficient, actually _you_ are missing something.
15) And when $SRM first started up, I was surprised how much people wanted it.
I guess they believed in me more than I did.
And when that happened I remembered FTX, and FTT, and the same people believing in us more than we did.
I guess they were right back then.
I guess they believed in me more than I did.
And when that happened I remembered FTX, and FTT, and the same people believing in us more than we did.
I guess they were right back then.
16) And I guess it made me realize they were probably right here too. Already the actual scope of the plans for @ProjectSerum had far outgrown my memory of them.
I knew that scope, and they didn't! But they guessed it, and guessed it better than my month-old cached value.
I knew that scope, and they didn't! But they guessed it, and guessed it better than my month-old cached value.
17) And since then, that scope has continued to baloon.
I had ~10 long-term partnerships to shoot for over the next years.
Already ~5 of them are underway.
And now there are ~100 more on the wishlist, many way larger than the first 10.
I had ~10 long-term partnerships to shoot for over the next years.
Already ~5 of them are underway.
And now there are ~100 more on the wishlist, many way larger than the first 10.
18) Anyway I don't know what the future will hold. But there are plans. And over the past month I've come to terms with their scope.
They seem _too_ big. Which means they'll only work if we do everything we can for them.
So let's get to it.
They seem _too_ big. Which means they'll only work if we do everything we can for them.
So let's get to it.
19) Anyway, maybe I'm wrong; you never know for sure.
But I guess what I have to say to that is: sure, get short; I can facilitate that. Let's check in a few months, and see who made money.
And if you _wouldn't_ do that: do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right?
But I guess what I have to say to that is: sure, get short; I can facilitate that. Let's check in a few months, and see who made money.
And if you _wouldn't_ do that: do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right?
20) And if you choose "be right": how sure are you that you really are right?
21) Anyway, I'd like to give a huge thanks to everyone who believed in me, and us, and crypto, and DeFi, and what we can accomplish together. I've learned a lot from you all.
22) So have at it. https://dex.projectserum.com/#/
23) Base fees are 10-40bps taker / -1-5bp maker REBATE, depending on SRM balances.
Those will be coming down soon. But for today, they'll be coming down more: we'll rebate down to 8bps taker fees via airdrops tomorrow.
Those will be coming down soon. But for today, they'll be coming down more: we'll rebate down to 8bps taker fees via airdrops tomorrow.
