Thread on & standoff in East Med. Early Aug sent seismic vessel & warships for gas research on continental shelf claimed by both, seeking create fait accompli. This is clear violation international law. sent warships to prevent this. None wants conflict but big risk.1

#Erdogan wants to revise status quo, incl. the 1923 Lausanne Treaty which defined the borders of the #Turkish Republic. Revisionism is dangerous, that’s what wars are made of. Militaristic rhetoric is not helping either. 2 https://bit.ly/3hHosmh 

wants partnership with , important for security, energy & migration. But EU mainly owes solidarity to members & when facing external threat. Many carrots on table but without some sticks cannot be credible. on Friday listed sanctions if continues escalation. 3

There is political case to be made. is a west liberal democracy, moderate govnt & opposition. #Erdogan has become illiberal ruler pressured by nationalistic opposition. has troops in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia, seeks to become global power and leader of #Sunni Muslim world 4

Erdogan has not been loyal partner to #NATO either. Defied NATO by purchasing S-400 from RUS. Welcomed Hamas leaders considered terrorists by &. #Macron has a point in wanting contain expansion in Med. policy of containment shld be combined withlogic of engagement. 5

must build principled partnership with now that accession not credible. Modernizing Customs Union which #Erdogan is keen on, is significant incentive. That must be conditional on respecting intl rule of law, existing borders, good neighbor relations with member states.6

No denial is important trade partner for https://bit.ly/32BZPRT  3rd export market for. Large mutual benefits to be reaped by both &. Think of Aegean as sea of peace, economic exchange & sustainable development. Tourism & cooperation between & can thrive. 7

For that &Greece must sit around the table & agree to delimit maritime boundaries. Without delimitation none can exploit resources under & above sea bed! If they do not agree they should refer dispute to International Court in the Hague. 8

But denies exclusive economic zone #EEZ even to large islands. This goes against UN Convention Law of the Sea - #UNCLOS, which TUR refuses to sign. 9

#Greece is willing to initiate talks. But obviously not under threat. #Erdogan must recall seismic vessel & warships. Will he? Reason says yes. But risks are big. Silly chicken game from which all sides are losing can become huge win-win if differences are mutually resolved. 9