Thread on https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">&https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇷" title="Flagge von Griechenland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Griechenland"> standoff in East Med. Early Aug https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei"> sent seismic vessel & warships for gas research on continental shelf claimed by both, https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei"> seeking create fait accompli. This is clear violation international law. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇷" title="Flagge von Griechenland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Griechenland">sent warships to prevent this. None wants conflict but big risk.1

#Erdogan wants to revise status quo, incl. the 1923 Lausanne Treaty which defined the borders of the #Turkish Republic. Revisionism is dangerous, that’s what wars are made of. Militaristic rhetoric is not helping either. 2 https://bit.ly/3hHosmh ">https://bit.ly/3hHosmh&q...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">wants partnership with https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">, important for security, energy & migration. But EUhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> mainly owes solidarity to members https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇷" title="Flagge von Griechenland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Griechenland">&https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇾" title="Flagge von Zypern" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Zypern"> when facing external threat. Many carrots on table but without some sticks https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> cannot be credible. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> on Friday listed sanctions if https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei"> continues escalation. 3

There is political case to be made.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇷" title="Flagge von Griechenland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Griechenland"> is a west liberal democracy, moderate govnt & opposition. #Erdogan has become illiberal ruler pressured by nationalistic opposition. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">has troops in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia, seeks to become global power and leader of #Sunni Muslim world 4

Erdogan has not been loyal partner to #NATO either. Defied NATO by purchasing S-400 from RUS. Welcomed Hamas leaders considered terrorists by https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">&https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">. #Macron has a point in wanting contain https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">expansion in Med. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇫🇷" title="Flagge von Frankreich" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Frankreich">policy of containment shld be combined withhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flagge von Deutschland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Deutschland">logic of engagement. 5

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">must build principled partnership with https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei"> now that accession not credible. Modernizing Customs Union which #Erdogan is keen on, is significant incentive. That must be conditional on https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei"> respecting intl rule of law, existing borders, good neighbor relations with https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">member states.6

No denial https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei"> is important trade partner for https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> https://bit.ly/32BZPRT ">https://bit.ly/32BZPRT&q... 3rd export market forhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇷" title="Flagge von Griechenland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Griechenland">. Large mutual benefits to be reaped by both https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">&https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">. Think of Aegean as sea of peace, economic exchange & sustainable development. Tourism & cooperation between https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇷" title="Flagge von Griechenland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Griechenland">&https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei"> can thrive. 7

For that https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">&https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇷" title="Flagge von Griechenland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Griechenland">Greece must sit around the table & agree to delimit maritime boundaries. Without delimitation none can exploit resources under & above sea bed! If they do not agree they should refer dispute to International Court in the Hague. 8

But https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei"> denies exclusive economic zone #EEZ even to large islands. This goes against UN Convention Law of the Sea - #UNCLOS, which TUR refuses to sign. 9

#Greece is willing to initiate talks. But obviously not under threat. #Erdogan must recall seismic vessel & warships. Will he? Reason says yes. But risks are big. Silly chicken game from which all sides are losing can become huge win-win if differences are mutually resolved. 9