Asked for thoughts on lessons from pandemic so far as we go into winter

1 Models
All models are wrong, some models are useful
No point trying to do any local modelling unless we have detailed planning assumptions.
High level output from national documents is no use to us
Too many sub national variation to be able to do much with high level output

What we WILL be doing
Excellent surveillance
early warning indicators
Cant underestimate the importance of close surveillance of actuals and rapid access to local data
maybe local modelling to see whether we are on track or deviating from scenarios like we did in first wave

2
National local balance.
Need both.
Cant be done only national
Or only local
This IS shifting in the right direction

3 On the ground intelligence really matters.
Skilled professionals, citizen voice, nuanced interpretation.
Trust between humans
emphasise importance of close surveillance of actuals and rapid access to local data

4 care homes - strategy to keep out.

Support the sector
Shielded setting
Discharge from hospital. Home as default.
Testing
Learning from Vivaldi study about how infections get in.
IPC. and the right kit, skills and approach

Social care is not the poor relation of the NHS

It is the set of service that care for some of our most vulnerable citizens.
Act with that in mind

Number in a hospital bed is as third as much as a care home bed which is as third as much as number receiving home care

5 Sticking with the programme.

We cant think it is all over.

Both as individuals and as govt and non govt agencies

living with COVID for some years to come

6 the guidance and the strategy is too complex
keep a simple strategy.

Keep people safe
Protect the vulnerable
Reopen society

we are beyond peak guidance
adopt simple principles that cut through all the complexity of guidelines
guidelines ARE guidelines

7 ensure we have the right capacity and incentives in right bits of our places and organisations.

Ability to deploy in strength and quickly

8 reframing the narrative away from “saving the NHS” and towards PEOPLE and what PEOPLE can do

the NHS serves people

what people do matters most. How can we help them

9 We massively over focus on "lockdowns" and neglect simple preventive interventions that we all need to adopt

we also neglect the importance of the day to day PH response from PH teams in LGov and PHE - Surveillance, responding to clusters, contact tracing

10 trust
Transparency
Flexible and adaptive response
HT @andrewleedr https://twitter.com/andrewleedr/status/1299991639088402433?s=19