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29 Aug: India crossed 3.5M reported #COVID19 cases & 63657 deaths About 5 lac new cases & 6811 deaths added in the past 7 daysDaily TPR 8.2%Follow this thread to understand important trends national, state & district level(1/n)
My
to #Mann_Ki_Nahi_Students_Ki_Baat
Cases growing at 2.2% compared to 2.4% a week back7-day avg. daily new cases shows no sign of slowingDaily active cases rebounding (growth 1.2%)Tests growing at 2.3%.Daily tests averaged 9L past 7 daysDaily deaths ~1000 level (2/n)
Growth of tests keeping above that of casesDaily TPR beginning to go up againRapid antigen tests take >50% of testing in many states including Delhi, Kerala, Andhra, Karnataka etc. Some are not utilizing their full RT-PCR capacity(3/n)
CH & CT growth >5%Most states got TPR<6% nowSouthern states like AP, KA & KL has high TPR despite high share of Rapid Antigen tests in their daily testsTN continues to depend fully on RT-PCRVery high TPR in MH, AP & KA is worrying, all being high burden states(4/n)
Mortality rate as % of reported cases 1.8% Mortality per million population 47High variation across statesMortality rates extremely low in almost the whole of Northeast whether we see deaths per million or casesMany eastern states & KL also has very low MR
(5/n)
Trends in mortality rates for both closed cases (recovered+deceased) and total casesBoth these rates are suppose to converge by the end of pandemicHigh variations in these rates are apparent in most states(6/n)
The daily reported numbers from y'day across states with at least 1000 casesLadakh, Arunachal & TS were among states with highest tests per million per day y'dayMany larger and high burden states like MH, UP, WB, MP etc doing low tests per million per day(7/n)
Trends in daily new cases across states. Some of the states are now showing signs of rebound in casesDelhi growing at 1.1% after bottoming at 0.7%(8/n)
This shows you which are the states where active cases are on the rise & needs to be worriedfocus on the grey shaded areaThere's clear sign of declining trends in cases in some states while it is going up in several othersSome are seeing rebound in cases(9/n)
Trends in daily test per million & test positive rate across states with 5K+ reported casesOdisha, Rajasthan & Punjab seem to be either reducing or not increasing their daily TPMStates seeing increase in TPR needs to significantly increase daily TPM too(10/n)
Top 50 districts in India in terms of total cases55% of cases & 68% of deaths now come from these districts This was 57% of cases & 69% just a week agoDelhi, Ahmednagar, Krishna dist. & few others seeing a rebound in cases after declining for several days(11/n)
TL;DR:
#COVID19 continues its spread beyond urban centers
It is still on an
trajectory & cases still growing exponentially
Some states/cities seeing rebound in daily cases
RT-PCR capacity needs tosignificantly
Report both tests & +ves by test types & districts (n/n)
#COVID19 continues its spread beyond urban centersIt is still on antrajectory & cases still growing exponentiallySome states/cities seeing rebound in daily casesRT-PCR capacity needs tosignificantlyReport both tests & +ves by test types & districts (n/n)
And this is where the trajectory of #COVID19 is expected to be in the month of September https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1297747902291312640?s=20
