Identifying the "greatest" career scorers in NBA history.

Thread.

Elements involved:
Amount ("volume") of scoring
Efficiency (TS Add)
Adjust for context:
Adjust for era (adjust volume & efficiency)
Adjust for minutes played
Minimum 20,000 minutes played

Greatest career scorers, volume with efficiency (per 36 MP era-adjusted):

1 Durant
2 Curry
3 Shaq
4 Harden
5 Dantley
6 Jordan
7 LeBron
8 Gervin NBA only
9 Kareem
10 K. Malone

KD is solid #1. Curry is solid #2.

Jordan Bulls-only stats would be solid #1.

Greatest career scorers, volume with efficiency (per 36 MP era-adjusted):

11-25:
West
Stoudemire
Barkley
Arizin
Pettit
Wilt
Oscar
Gilmore NBA
R. Miller
D. Robinson

Nowitzki
McAdoo
Kobe
Issel NBA
Sharman

How did we get these results?

First, start with:
Career leaders PER 36 MP, era adjusted:

28.7 Jordan (29.5 for Bulls only)
27.4 Durant
27.1 Gervin NBA only
26.8 Kobe
26.6 LeBron
26.6 Shaq
26.2 Harden
25.6 Anthony
25.5 Iverson
25.2 Curry

Career leaders PER 36 MP, era adjusted:

11-20:
25.1 K. Malone
24.8 Wilkins
24.8 Westbrook
24.6 Wade
23.7 Pettit
23.7 Lillard
23.6 Nowitzki
23.6 Dantley
23.5 W. Davis
23.4 Stoudemire

PTS/36 MP, adjusted for era:

Other well-known players:
23.3 Kareem
23.2McAdoo
23.0West
22.8D. Robinson
22.6Baylor
22.4Ewing
22.3Hakeem
22.3Erving NBA only
22.2R. Barry NBA only
22.0Bird
21.8Duncan
21.8Wilt
21.8Barkley
20.3 Oscar

Some players with BELOW-AVERAGE P/36 era adjusted:
15.7 L. Wilkens
15.3 Stockton
14.7 J. Lucas
14.6 Horford
13.7 Kidd
12.5 H. Grant
12.5 D. Jordan
12.3 Rondo
12.2 Mutombo
12.2 Cheeks

Players with BELOW-REPLACEMENT-LEVEL P/36 era adjusted:
12.0 Russell
11.9 M. Jackson
10.3 Unseld

We could just base "greatest scorers" on volume scoring.

Problem: Iverson, Curry, Westbrook have about the same P/36 adjusted.

But AI & Russ have below-average (TS+) efficiency; Curry has one of the highest ever. So AI & Russ are not as "great" scorers as Curry is.

So efficiency is part of "greatness."

But there's a problem with efficiency stats like TS%,TS+:
They don't take into account volume.

Career TS+
117 DeAndre Jordan
115 Curry

DeAndre is more efficient. But is he a "better" scorer? No, Curry averages twice as many PTS/36 adjusted

TS Add:
This stat recognizes efficiency in the context of volume.

TS Add is the TOTAL POINTS SCORED ABOVE LEAGUE-AVERAGE TS%.

So even though DeAndre is more efficient, Steph's much greater volume results in much higher TS Add:
1223 DeAndre
2081 Steph (in slightly fewer MP)

Career leaders in TS Add per 36 MP era-adjusted:
3.3 Curry
3.2 Gilmore NBA only
3.2 Dantley
3.0 Durant
2.9 Kareem
2.7 R. Miller
2.7 Oscar
2.7 Barkley
2.6 Shaq
2.5 Harden

Career leaders in TS Add per 36 MP era-adjusted:

11-20:
2.5 Wilt
2.5 West
2.5 Arizin
2.3 Stoudemire
2.3 C. Maxwell
2.2 McHale
2.2 Magic
2.1 Nash
2.1 Howell
2.1 Pettit

Others:
1.7 Jordan (2.2 Bulls only)
1.1 Bird
0.9 Kobe

Players average/below-average in TS Add per 36 MP era-adjusted:
0.0 Payton
0.0 D. Wilkins
0.0 T. Hardaway
-0.1 Russell
-0.3 Havlicek
-0.3 Cousy
-0.3McGrady
-0.4Cowens
-0.5Iverson
-0.6Kidd
-0.6Webber
-0.8 I. Thomas
-0.8 Westbrook
-0.8 Hayes
-0.9 McGinnis NBA
-1.0 Rondo

Next steps:
1) Take points above average (P/36-league-average P/36)
Set 100% as highest ever (Jordan 12.9= 28.7-15.8)
Set 0% as league average (15.8)

2) Take TS Add per 36 era adjusted
Set 100% as highest (3.3 Curry)
Set 0% as league average (0.0)

3) Add 1 & 2 together

Greatest scorers ABOVE AVERAGE, volume with efficiency (per 36 MP era-adjusted):
181% Durant
173% Curry
162% Shaq
159% Harden
158% Dantley
152% Jordan
147% LeBron
146% Gervin NBA
146% Kareem
134% K. Malone

Jordan Bulls-only stats would be solid #1 (188%).

Greatest scorers ABOVE AVERAGE, volume with efficiency (per 36 MP era-adjusted):

11-24:
132% West
130% Stoudemire
129% Barkley
126% Arizin
125% Pettit
125% Wilt
118% Oscar
117% Gilmore NBA only
117% R. Miller
116% D. Robinson
114% Nowitzki
113% McAdoo
113% Kobe
107% Issel NBA

Some other high-volume scorers:
88% Wade
82% Erving NBA
82% M. Malone NBA
81% Anthony
81% Bird
76% English
74% Hakeem
72% Duncan
70% Baylor
69% D. Wilkins
61% Iverson
59% R. Barry NBA
48% McGrady
45% Westbrook

Efficiency is vs. AVERAGE; players lower down hurt by inefficiency.

I'd stand by these results.

However, being average is difficult. The median NBA player is BELOW AVERAGE bc best players get most MP & shots.

Average is also more difficult to achieve with high volume.

Thus, many statisticians use "replacement level" rather than "average."

I re-calculated results using:

1) PTS/36 MP above REPLACEMENT LEVEL for scoring (12.0 per 36 MP era-adjusted).

2) TS Added above REPLACEMENT LEVEL (TS+ of 94; TS+ average=100).

These changes will shift more toward volume and penalize lower efficiency less harshly.

PTS/36 MP above REPLACEMENT LEVEL for scoring (12.0 era-adjusted):

16.7 Jordan
15.3 Durant
15.1 Gervin NBA
14.8 Kobe
14.6 LeBron
14.5 Shaq
14.2 Harden
13.5 Anthony
13.5 Iverson
13.2 Curry
13.1 K. Malone
12.8 D. Wilkins
12.7 Westbrook
12.5 Wade
11.7 Pettit
11.6 Lillard
11.5Dirk

TS Added above REPLACEMENT LEVEL:
4.6 Curry
4.4 Durant
4.4 Dantley
4.1 Gilmore NBA
4.1 Kareem
4.0 Shaq
4.0 Harden
3.8 Barkley
3.8 R. Miller
3.8 Oscar

3.7 West
3.7 Wilt
3.7 Arizin
3.6 Stoudemire
3.5 LeBron
3.4 Gervin NBA
3.4 K. Malone
3.4 Pettit
3.3 Jordan
3.3 McHale

Greatest scorers ABOVE REPLACEMENT, volume with efficiency (per 36 MP era-adjusted):

1-10:
189% Durant
179% Curry
174% Shaq
172% Jordan
172% Harden
166% Dantley
165% Gervin NBA
164% LeBron
157% Kareem
153% K. Malone

Jordan Bulls-only would be 188.6%, just behind KD.

Greatest scorers ABOVE REPLACEMENT, volume with efficiency (per 36 MP era-adjusted):

11-21:
147% West
146% Stoudemire
144% Pettit
142% Barkley
142% Kobe
141% Arizin
139% Wilt
136% Nowitzki
136% D. Robinson
134% McAdoo
132% Oscar

As suspected, shifting from above-average to above-replacement-level shifted toward volume & away from efficiency.

These player moved up the most spots:
21 Westbrook
18 Iverson
17 D. Wilkins
15 McGrady
12 Anthony
10 Webber
10 Aldridge
10 Carter
10 English
9 Cousy
9 Kobe

Comparison of greatest scorers ranking:

Ranks: Above Average, Above Replacement:
1, 1Durant
2, 2Curry
3, 3Shaq
4, 5Harden
5, 6Dantley
6, 4Jordan
7, 8LeBron
8, 7Gervin NBA
9, 9Kareem
10, 10 K. Malone

Ranks: Above Average, Above Replacement:
11, 11 West
12, 12 Stoudemire
13, 14 Barkley
14, 16 Arizin
15, 13 Pettit
16, 17 Wilt
17, 22 Oscar
18, 26 Gilmore NBA
19, 23 R. Miller
20, 18 D. Thompson NBA
21, 20 D. Robinson
22, 19 Nowitzki
23, 21 McAdoo
24, 15 Kobe
25, 24 Issel NBA