Obama alums, who presided over Russia's annexation of Crimea and the formation of faux separatist republics in the Donbas by Russian FSB officers in breach of the Budapest Memorandum, have some nerve singling out the Trump Admin for its relatively weak response to #Belarus 1/n

For the Ukrainians, who gave up their strategic deterrent in exchange for Anglo-American security assurances regarding their territorial integrity, the US and European response to Moscow's actions continue to smell of what happened after Germany breached the Munich Agreement 2/n

Occupying the rump of Czechoslovakia after being given the Sudetenland, and proceeding to make further territorial demands on Lithuania and then Poland. Western sanctions haven't materially changed the facts on the ground & Russia halted its advance b/c of its own limitations 3/n

Be that as it may, Trump's Admin should take a much harder line re: #Belarus and ignore the political noise. It is a balance of power issue. Lukashenko as a weakened Putin puppet or, worse, Russian annexation of Belarus is a strategic problem for NATO & the US 4/n

Poland and Lithuania could be surrounded on two sides by Russian forces were Belarus to be annexed - something Putin & many in Moscow have wanted to do for years and almost achieved last year. A weak, unstable Lukashenko governing as Putin's Mussolini isn't a welcome prospect 5/n

The US and Russia need to set their red lines and communicate directly on this. It should be communicated to Moscow that any attempt at a repeat in Belarus of what happened in Ukraine would be met with catastrophic consequences. And Putin needs to understand that we are serious.