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// THREAD \\\\ Austin Hooper vs Hayden Hurst
There have been many debates about who to grab for your TE starting slot between these two: Hooper, who finished 3rd in 2019 in ppg (14.8), or Hurst, who slides into the coveted Falcons TE role.
Let’s break down their 2020 outlook.
There have been many debates about who to grab for your TE starting slot between these two: Hooper, who finished 3rd in 2019 in ppg (14.8), or Hurst, who slides into the coveted Falcons TE role.
Let’s break down their 2020 outlook.
According to FFCalculator ADP:
AHooper is TE10, Overall 114
HHurst is T13, Overall 128
Many have said they’re concerned that Hurst is not as athletically gifted as Hooper.
HOOPER is 6’4”, 254
33 3/4” Arm Length
Draft Capital: 3.18
4.72 40
116.3 burst score
108.4 SPARQ-x
AHooper is TE10, Overall 114
HHurst is T13, Overall 128
Many have said they’re concerned that Hurst is not as athletically gifted as Hooper.
HOOPER is 6’4”, 254
33 3/4” Arm Length
Draft Capital: 3.18
4.72 40
116.3 burst score
108.4 SPARQ-x
HURST is 6’5”, 250
32 1/8” Arm Length
Draft Capital: 1.25
4.67 40
115.1 burst score
101.5 SPARQ-x
Matt Ryan recently said re Hurst: “He is for sure one of the fastest & most athletic TEs I’ve ever played with. He’s a mismatch problem.”
They met up often this offseason to workout
32 1/8” Arm Length
Draft Capital: 1.25
4.67 40
115.1 burst score
101.5 SPARQ-x
Matt Ryan recently said re Hurst: “He is for sure one of the fastest & most athletic TEs I’ve ever played with. He’s a mismatch problem.”
They met up often this offseason to workout
HOOPER — 201913 games
97 targets (119 pace for 16 gms)
75-787-6 TDs
10.5 yards/rec
77.3% catch rate (only 2 drops)
2019 Falcons
684 pass attempts
AHooper: 17.4% TargetShare pace
3rd in targets behind Julio and Ridley. Often security blanket for MRyan. Caught 41 1st downs.
The concern for Hooper is that he’s moving from the most pass-friendly team (led the league in pass attempts), to arguably a run-heavy system. We still do not know what to fully expect from Kevin Stefanski & the Browns. We can look at 2019 Vikings play calling trends to estimate.
2019 Vikings KSTEF:
466 Pass Attempts
57% Multiple-Tight End Sets (most in the league)
TE1 KRudolph 48 Targets
10.3% TargetShare
TE2 Irv Smith 47 Targets
10.0% TargetShare
Red Zone Touches:
RB 101 chances
WR 21
TE 21 (KRudolph 11, Irv 10)
466 Pass Attempts
57% Multiple-Tight End Sets (most in the league)
TE1 KRudolph 48 Targets
10.3% TargetShare
TE2 Irv Smith 47 Targets
10.0% TargetShare
Red Zone Touches:
RB 101 chances
WR 21
TE 21 (KRudolph 11, Irv 10)
Looking at these tendencies, I strongly doubt Hooper matches what he produced in Atlanta. Stefanski tends to Target WR/RB more often in the pass game, as well in the Red Zone, with his TE1 only seeing a 10.3% TargetShare.
Hooper saw 17.4% of 684 targets with ATL.
Hooper saw 17.4% of 684 targets with ATL.
Vikings passed an average of 29.2 attempts per game. Let’s project 31.5, roughly 505 attempts on the year.
Just say Hooper matches his 17.4% TS, which would be his CEILING.
2020 Projection:
88 Targets
68rec - 714 yards - 5 TDs
169.4 points
10.6 fppg
TE12 Finish.
Just say Hooper matches his 17.4% TS, which would be his CEILING.
2020 Projection: 88 Targets
68rec - 714 yards - 5 TDs
169.4 points
10.6 fppg
TE12 Finish.
2019 HURST Hurst has 1st Round Draft Capital, however has not produced to match that. 2019, he fell to 3rd on the Ravens depth chart behind Mark Andrews & Nick Boyle, playing ~45% of snaps.
2019:
39 Tgts
30 rec - 349 yds - 2 TDs
11.63 Y/R
76.9% CatchRate
By all indications, Hurst will jump to TE1 in Atlanta for a fresh start. ATL traded away a 2nd Round Pick to acquire him, and by multiple accounts, Hurst has impressed in camp so far. He may get the chance to impress with an 80-85% snap rate in ATL in 2020.
ATL has the 4th most difficult strength of schedule in 2020, and did not make any major upgrades to their defense. They also brought back Dirk Koetter as OC, likely ensuring that they pass near the top of the league yet again.
Let’s project a small regression in pass attempts..
Let’s project a small regression in pass attempts..
2019 ATL had 42.8 per game
2020 Projection: 39.5 per game
~632 total attempts
Julio likely sees ~25% TgtShare (155)
CRidley ~20% TS (125)
RGage ~14% TS (88)
RBs ~16% TS (102)
That leaves ~25% targets to consume, or 160 targets.
I fully believe Hurst can absorb 18%, but..
2020 Projection: 39.5 per game
~632 total attempts
Julio likely sees ~25% TgtShare (155)
CRidley ~20% TS (125)
RGage ~14% TS (88)
RBs ~16% TS (102)
That leaves ~25% targets to consume, or 160 targets.
I fully believe Hurst can absorb 18%, but..
Let’s safely project 16% for their new starting TE:
2020 PROJECTION
101 Targets
78 recs - 878 yards - 6 TDs
201.8 total points
12.6 fppg
TE8 Finish.
And I firmly believe this could be Hurst’s FLOOR.
He could very well see a 18-19% TargetShare.
2020 PROJECTION 101 Targets
78 recs - 878 yards - 6 TDs
201.8 total points
12.6 fppg
TE8 Finish.
And I firmly believe this could be Hurst’s FLOOR.
He could very well see a 18-19% TargetShare.
SUMMARY Volume is king.
AHooper’s CEILING could very well be a TE12 finish in a projected run heavy scheme that emphasizes RB/WR in the end zone.
HHurst’s FLOOR could be a TE8 finish in the highest passing volume offense in the league.
Draft Hayden Hurst.
Thank you very much for reading and hope you enjoyed the content 
please feel free to retweet and comment. Let’s start a discussion. There are several young TEs I’d draft over Hooper too (such as Fant!).
please feel free to retweet and comment. Let’s start a discussion. There are several young TEs I’d draft over Hooper too (such as Fant!).
