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With draft season in full swing, I wanted to take a short dive into RB1s. With the first few rounds being full of RBs, picking the correct one can be the difference maker on your fantasy team so here are just a few of the basic things I& #39;ve found:
First I looked back at all RB1s since 1990. The average RB12, or last RB1 in a 12 team league, scored 221 PPR points over the entire season so I looked at every RB that scored over 221 PPR points since 1990
We hear that volume is king and that seems to hold up. I was surprised that the data came out to be as bell shaped and normal as it is, with a slight left skew. 96% of RB1s had more than 214 touches(2 SD below avg) and 84% had more than 271 touches (1 SD below avg).
Of those with 214 or less touches, they were either very TD efficient or had 70+ receptions. The two players that had less than 70 receptions were K. Hunt in 2018, where he scored a TD on 20% of his receptions, and MJD in 2006, when he scored 13 rushing TDs
While it makes sense that most RB1s would play most of the games, I think this is a great reminder that when drafting in the first round, try to minimize risk as much as possible. Only a single player has scored RB1 type points and played only 10 games.
Age is next: 36% of RB1s were at least 27 entering the season, and between the ages of 23 and 26, players had pretty much the same chance of being an RB1. None of the top 12 RBs in ADP right now are older than 26 but it could help us figure out who might be a RB1 this season
One final piece, previous season PPR points: Both of these histograms have averages close to the 221 point RB1 cutoff we chose at the beginning. Giant caveat: This does not include rookies, this simply looks at players already established with at least one or two seasons played
What I think this tells us is that players that get to the level of RB1 are likely to repeat. If this was not true, the average would have been much less. If I remove players that played less than 10 games(probably injured), the avg increases in both, supporting that RB1s repeat
So what does this all mean and how does this impact your draft strategy?
1. Try your best to maximize volume
2. If the total volume is not there, go for players that are going to get a lot of targets and receptions or lots of goal line work.
3. Don& #39;t gamble on risky players,
1. Try your best to maximize volume
2. If the total volume is not there, go for players that are going to get a lot of targets and receptions or lots of goal line work.
3. Don& #39;t gamble on risky players,
4. RB1s often repeat, making them a better bet than a player that has never been a RB1.
A lot of this reaffirms what is already discussed in the fantasy community but is a nice refresher before drafts.
A lot of this reaffirms what is already discussed in the fantasy community but is a nice refresher before drafts.
Players this data effects negatively:
1. CEH - likely on the lower end of total touches, will have to be efficient but likely will in KC
2. Kenyan Drake - struggle to 270+touches, injury concerns
3. Sanders - injury concerns, currently week to week
4. D. Cook - injury concerns
1. CEH - likely on the lower end of total touches, will have to be efficient but likely will in KC
2. Kenyan Drake - struggle to 270+touches, injury concerns
3. Sanders - injury concerns, currently week to week
4. D. Cook - injury concerns
Possible RB1s based on data:
1. David Johnson - could easily see 270+ touches. Will probably see lots of red zone work, age is against him.
2. Tarik Cohen - Already been an RB1 and 70+ receptions probable
Super Sleeper:
3. M. Breida - could see 70+ targets on pass heavy team.
1. David Johnson - could easily see 270+ touches. Will probably see lots of red zone work, age is against him.
2. Tarik Cohen - Already been an RB1 and 70+ receptions probable
Super Sleeper:
3. M. Breida - could see 70+ targets on pass heavy team.
