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@PolemicTMM will be interested for your follow ups to your poll. FWIW I answered reals for both. Here’s my mini thread: There seem to be three distinct trades on right now for XAU: #1 Reals #2 Small spec chasing an ambiguous inflation trade and call momo #3 Global fiat debasement
Big money trades #1. Schiff subs and retail largely trade #2 and in the long run will get killed for not watching reals. #3 is a different expression of #1 and is an X factor. ie do broader global debasement fears overwhelm even if reals climb? Unknown.
The question you pose on DXY is even more interesting than your first. Again three trades as I see it here. #1 US reals relative to the basket is I believe the primary driver. #2 schiff subs chasing the “collapse of the dollar” #3 momo and spec following the money on #1 and #2.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Jackson Hole if it did anything showed fed might be pushing on a string w/o more fiscal and we might be seeing limits of collateral to drive liquidity where it counts (ie inflation).
If fiscal log jam continues or is undersized to offset consumer deleveraging, big money trading reals could trigger serious unwind of #2 and #3 in both XAU and DXY. My biggest trade right now is a UUP straddle because I believe we will see some interesting moves near term.
@coloradotravis @PolemicTMM @MacroStratFree @UncleRico77 @SoccerMomTrades @jturek18 would be interested in any alternate takes on mine here
